Advanced Stats Football needs to "Borrow" from America
Some ideas about stats that could change the GAME.... Well, at least make your corner routines a bit better at the very least. I'll let you be the judge. Usage Rate video from @SincereFC • The NBA Stat that Could Change Football Timestamps 0:00 Intro 0:46 WR Separation (NFL) 7:18 Usage Rate (NBA) 8:20 Gravity (NBA) 15:45 Hard Hit% (MLB) 17:25 Outs Above Average (MLB) FOOTNOTES ‡¹ - Football lagged behind American Sports in terms of the adoption of advanced statistics for a long period of time. Partially due to the complexity of the sport to analyze, and partially due to the cultures around the sports themselves. How you apportion that "blame" is up to you. ‡² - Bad QB play, Bad OL play, or another player getting open earlier in the progressions, would be the main reason for not getting the ball. ‡³ - I'm not quite sure at what level to pitch these videos at. I'm always torn though because I don't want to appear condescending, but I don't want to bore you to death with obvious explanations. Counting stats in sports aren't great - because they don't account for a lot of surrounding factors. 30 goals for a striker could have come from 45 shots, or 90. The goal stat alone without that context is susceptible to misinterpretation. ‡⁴ - Assuming that both deliveries are both as easy for your corner taker to actually execute. Which shouldn't be taken for granted in any deep analysis ‡⁵ - Separation is a lot more widely applicable for American Football. Not ALL routes are ran with separation in mind, as screens and decoy routes do exist. But most of the time creating separation is key. Some sites do track separation per target which could help eliminate those plays. ‡⁶ - Would require a lot more manual scouting. You'd have to separate all their different set-piece types, identify which ones are designed to create separation, and pinpoint the main target. More work means more money invested. I think it could be a very useful stat to have on your opposition though. That extra investment it wouldn't be feasible for player scouting on a large scale. ‡⁷ - It would be very interesting to see and play around with it though. So if any member of a top notch data analytics team wants to breach their contract and get fired to let a tiny YouTuber see their database then hit me up. ‡⁸ - This chart is completely made up in terms of the placements of the sports. But I stand behind the logic. When's the last time you thought of Marouane Chamakh? ‡⁹ - In basketball you can't afford to give a player space because for the vast majority of the possession they're in shooting range. It makes gravity a very effective metric for basketball. In football, is that the case though? ‡¹⁰ - I think that this should be calculated as how long you'd have to go and get the ball vs the average player - in order for the stat to be most useful, but I'm a little unsure. ‡¹¹ - A player could show up well in this metric, but still have problems resulting from his lack of pace - but it would be a very interesting indicator of when a player's legs are "gone". ‡¹² - Would probably be a lot easier to model too. My biggest regret in the script is downplaying how hard it would be to actually make something like this. I make it sound easy for some reason. It would not be. References: Albert Einstein's Face: https://breakthrough.neliti.com/alber... Under Creative Commons 4.0: Basketball from vssports21, American football from licjhon, Baseball from Alex Bes. Catch Probability Explanation: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast... Examples of Blocking for Corners: https://www.fifatrainingcentre.com/en... Full explanation of Outs above Average: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast... Gravity Illustrations: https://squared2020.com/2017/12/21/gr... Hazard getting man marked by Ander Herrera: • Ander Herrera man-marking Eden Hazard / Da... The Concept of space in functional play: https://totalfootballanalysis.com/art... The Fifa videos with the stupidly hard hit shots: Bam Bam Bam - NBA 2k voice acting: • Voice acting is hard Fernández, Javier & Bornn, Luke. (2018). Wide Open Spaces: A statistical technique for measuring space creation in professional soccer. A nice article about statistically measuring space in football: / tactical-theory-influencing-space-in-posse... #footballanalytics #soccerstats #premierleague #sportsanalytics #soccertactics #advancedstats #footballstats #footballanalysis #soccer #footballmanager #footballtactics

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