AI w 2026: sześć warstw. Nie tylko NVIDIA.

In December 2023, as an equity strategist at mBank, I publicly stated my thesis: NVIDIA will beat the S&P 500. Today, the stock price is four times higher. And that's precisely why I have a problem. Because a revolution that's just starting behaves completely differently from one that's already in full swing. In 2023, I was betting on the former. In 2026, we're facing the latter – and that changes the map of exposure to artificial intelligence. In this episode, I guide you through the six layers of the AI ​​value chain in 2026: Energy: a fundamental physics that software alone can't solve HBM memory: a three-player oligopoly and one of the most important bottlenecks Mainstream chips: the NVIDIA valuation paradox after a fourfold price increase Dedicated chips: a complementary thesis, not a simple "replacement" for GPUs Optics and networking: the infrastructure without which AI clusters don't scale linearly Models and applications: a price war the market still doesn't call by its name Plus the three-question framework I apply to every breakthrough technology—not just AI. 📌 CHAPTERS 0:00 NVIDIA, the winning thesis, and the problem of intuition 1:39 What really happened behind the 2023 thesis? 4:09 DeepSeek and the Jevons Paradox 7:14 Can the competition break NVIDIA? 10:18 A bottleneck that software can't solve? 12:58 Howard Marks, CAPE 40, and the risk of a bubble 15:01 Why NVIDIA 2026 isn't Cisco 2000? 16:17 Six layers of the AI ​​value chain 20:50 Three questions for every breakthrough technology 23:48 The biggest trap after a good decision 🔗 NEWSLETTER KoR Newsletter - free + premium: https://www.krupaorynkach.pl/ This week, the free version includes almost all premium content, except for the "Krupa Wallet" segment. A complete breakdown of the AI ​​value chain in 2026—segment by segment, with companies, valuations, and falsification conditions—is available in today's KoR newsletter. Founding Members: €98.99 per year, with a lifetime price lock, available until Friday, May 16th. Monthly subscription: €14.99, no strings attached. 🎧 PODCAST This episode is also available in audio on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 📚 MENTIONED IN THE EPISODE Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking Traps: On Thinking Fast and Slow." Howard Marks, memo "Is It a Bubble?" and "AI Hurtles Ahead" — Jevons' Paradox — PJM Interconnection and Capacity Auctions in the US Power Grid — METR Research and Research on the AI ​​Task Horizon 🔗 LINKEDIN   / mateusz-krupa-cfa-di   — ⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute an investment recommendation, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments within the meaning of the Act on Trading in Financial Instruments of July 29, 2005. The author is a licensed Investment Advisor and CFA Charterholder, but does not provide investment advisory services through this channel. The author may hold positions in the companies discussed in the video. A detailed portfolio structure is published in the KoR Premium newsletter.