외국인 도망치는 인도네시아 98년 외환위기 환율 찍었다 (언더스탠딩 박팀장)

💡Summary Despite maintaining a healthy economic growth rate of around 5%, Indonesia is experiencing an unusual situation where its exchange rate and stock market are rapidly deteriorating. The Rupiah exchange rate has risen to levels higher than during the 1997–98 foreign exchange crisis, and the stock market has fallen significantly since the beginning of the year. However, analysts attribute this not to an economic recession, but to foreign investors losing confidence in the Indonesian market and withdrawing their funds. The primary cause of this erosion of confidence is the stock market. MSCI issued a warning regarding market transparency, raising questions about the Indonesian stock market's governance structure, the ratio of actual circulating shares, and the price formation process. Consequently, foreign investors withdrew funds, and the possibility of further capital outflows remains depending on the results of the MSCI reassessment scheduled for November. The second factor is political and fiscal risk. While pushing forward with welfare pledges such as large-scale free school meals, President Prabowo replaced the Finance Minister, who had prioritized fiscal soundness, raising concerns that Indonesia's iconic "3% of GDP fiscal deficit rule" could be shaken. Confidence among foreign investors has weakened due to a combination of increased government spending and political uncertainty. Additionally, the management of the new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, is also controversial. Doubts regarding the rule of law and investor protection have grown as the fund effectively demands loans from foreign banks, faces controversy over the forced inclusion of private assets, and legal amendments relax verification of fund sources. Consequently, foreign banks and companies have begun withdrawing funds, leading to a vicious cycle in exchange rates and the stock market. Going forward, MSCI’s November review and assessments by international credit rating agencies are considered key variables that will determine the direction of Indonesia’s financial market. 📌Key Topics The paradox of Indonesia: The economy growing while the financial market collapses Foreign investor exodus and stock market confidence crisis triggered by MSCI warnings The '3% fiscal deficit rule' shaken by free school meals and expansionary fiscal policies Controversy over the rule of law and transparency surrounding the sovereign wealth fund 'Dhanantara' The November MSCI review and credit rating assessments mark a watershed moment for the Indonesian economy [This is an AI-generated summary of the video] 👉 Understanding Inquiries: [email protected] 👉 Read "Understanding Text" https://contents.premium.naver.com/ba... 👉 Join Understanding Membership    / @understanding.