Why This Ex-Trump Economist Says the Fed Needs to Raise Interest Rates | WSJ’s Take On the Week

In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos is joined by Heard on the Street editor Aaron Back to discuss the economy, inflation, and the appointment of the new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh. They are joined by Joe Lavorgna, Americas chief economist at SMBC and a former counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Lavorgna argues that the Fed has an inflation problem that is so entrenched that it calls for a hike. Lavorgna breaks down how massive fiscal stimulus and the recent supply shock from the Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz closure have pushed inflation higher, making a disinflationary boom unlikely. He addresses the question of whether AI-induced productivity will be disinflationary, and how we’ll know. Chapters: 1:07 — The Fed's Inflation Problem 2:29 — Root Causes of Inflation 3:50 — The Energy Shock & The War in Iran 5:28 — The Case for Rate Hikes 7:07 — Inflation Expectations & Risks 9:51 — Trump, Warsh & Fed Independence 11:38 — Jobs Data & Wages 13:58 — AI, Productivity & Inflation 18:50 — The Consumer Outlook 20:19 — Fed Balance Sheet & Warsh's Approach 23:11 — Fiscal Policy & Long-Term Rates This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at [email protected]. #WSJ #FederalReserve #Kevin Warsh