코스피·코스닥 5% 동반 폭락, 양 시장 매도 사이드카 발동… 반도체 고점론 충격 vs 60일선 이탈 과매도 숏커버링 초초읽기 l 이종원·현상준·안인기·김종문 l 더 워룸 2부

#SellSideCarTriggered #KOSDAQ800LineCollapse #FearOfSemiconductorPeakOut #MiddleEastGeopoliticalRisk #OversoldVolley #HanmiScience #SAMT #LGElectronicsRecordEarnings 👤 Cast Information Hyun Sang-jun | CEO, Ventus Investment Ahn In-ki | CEO, Kangho Investment Consulting Kim Jong-moon | General Manager, Gangnam Financial Center, NH Investment & Securities 💡 Today's Code Name Key Points (Sharp Decline and Return of Foreign Investors): Samsung Electronics and KIX plummeted as instability in the Middle East coincided with negative news regarding the semiconductor sector. The KOSPI has broken below its 60-day moving average, facing a critical turning point in maintaining its trend. Since the beginning of July, intraday volatility has reached around 10% daily, and the KOSDAQ has fallen 36% from its peak, indicating a decline that is more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, amidst this, foreign investors are showing buying interest in both spot and futures markets, heightening supply and demand expectations ahead of SK Hynix's US ADR listing. While it is essential to verify whether the lows hold support should the index fall again, now is the time to look for buying opportunities amidst fear in sectors with clear earnings momentum, such as beneficiaries of AI robot policies and LG Electronics, which recorded its highest-ever quarterly earnings in the second quarter. ⚔️ Supply and Demand Analysis Room 📈 ① Sell_Semiconductor (Peak or Bottom?) Ahn In-ki: Wall Street forecasts regarding the semiconductor market are in stark contrast, with concerns about a peak-out versus the continuation of the supercycle. Short-term volatility has been maximized due to the overlapping geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East; however, since the structural growth potential of AI memory itself remains intact, this volatility should be interpreted as both a risk and an opportunity to buy at the bottom. Kim Jong-moon: While the KOSPI continues to fall below the 60-day moving average due to accumulated supply and demand issues, noise, and upward fatigue, the current point is clearly an 'oversold zone.' As evidenced by Samsung Electronics' record-breaking second-quarter earnings, earnings outlooks have been further strengthened, and the only thing that has changed is the stock price. Since leading stocks typically undergo corrections of around 20–30% even amidst long-term growth trends, one must trust the fundamentals. 📉 ② Sell_KOSDAQ (Clock Turning Backward) Ahn In-ki: The KOSDAQ has fallen below the 800 mark for the first time in 10 months, highlighted by capital concentration centered on large-cap stocks and the side effects of the sell gamma from single-stock leverage ETFs. For a future rebound, the easing of the extreme concentration that triggered the sell-side circuit breaker, the normalization of supply and demand, and the calming of foreign selling pressure following exchange rate stability must take precedence. Kim Jong-moon: The sharp decline in core semiconductor stocks and the supply-demand gap have further deepened the decline in the KOSDAQ market, triggering a severe recessionary correction. The decline in the KOSDAQ index is excessive, and since the earnings of leading sectors are exceeding expectations, any further correction should instead be seen as an opportunity to actively increase the weight of blue-chip memory semiconductor materials, components, and equipment. 📝 Tomorrow's Market iF Report ① What if the NASDAQ market closes higher? (Semiconductor 'Two' vs. Sector Rotation) – Ahn In-ki If the NASDAQ succeeds in reversing its downward trend due to the strength of AI and tech stocks in the New York stock market overnight, strong global synchronization will likely play a role in the domestic market as well. As investor sentiment, which had been suppressed by geopolitical risks, is resolved, investors should first focus on a strong rally in leading large-cap stocks centered on the KOSPI semiconductor 'Two' (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix), which experienced the deepest declines. ② What if there is a further correction centered on leading stocks tomorrow? (Repurchasing of leading stocks vs. Expectations of rotation) – Kim Jong-moon Due to geopolitical issues in the Middle East and other factors, pressure for further corrections in US after-hours trading and domestic semiconductor leading stocks may continue even after the close of regular trading. While a correction centered on leading stocks will increase overall market volatility, stock prices are ultimately a 'function of earnings and growth.' Therefore, given the strengthened earnings outlook, if your current weighting in memory semiconductors is small, you should view this as an opportunity to add them to your portfolio and repurchase; ultimately, the rebound will begin with the leading stocks. #SellSidecar #CircuitBreakerWarning #SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #NASDAQADR #HanmiScience #SAMT #Alteogen #EcoProBM #JusungEn...