Bank of Canada calls out the condo market & holds rates at 2.25%

BoC Holds at 2.25%—But the Monetary Policy Report Signals Trouble for Canadian Housing The episode argues the Bank of Canada’s biggest news isn’t the rate hold but the accompanying Monetary Policy Report, which suggests a fragile Canadian recovery and a subdued housing outlook. While the BoC held the policy rate at 2.25% and expects inflation—recently 3.2% in May, driven mostly by gasoline—to ease toward 2%, the forecast relies on oil stabilizing around US$70–75 and includes risks from a weaker Canadian dollar and imported inflation. The report notes soft employment, a negative output gap, and a 2026 growth forecast cut to 0.7%, with housing expected to be a drag on GDP in 2026 before only modest improvement later. It highlights affordability, slowed population growth, uncertainty, and unsold small condo inventory in Toronto and Vancouver as key constraints, advising borrowers to watch bond markets more than hoped-for cuts. 00:00 Biggest BoC News 00:28 Monetary Report Warning 01:29 Inflation And Oil Assumptions 03:01 Economic Backdrop Breakdown 05:29 Bond Market And Dollar 06:55 Housing Stabilization Claims 07:53 Condo Overhang Risks 09:10 Housing Hits Consumers 10:12 Mortgage Rate Reality Check 11:16 Neutral Rate And Next Moves 13:15 Forecast Cuts And Oil Threat 15:44 Wrap Up And Viewer Questions #canada #bankofcanada #torontorealestate #canadarealestate #canadaeconomy #canadanews