ايران قد تكرر مافعله صدام حسين

🔥 Follow Dr. Omar Abdel Sattar's exclusive analyses: • Watch the previous episode:    • كونداليزا رايس: إيران هُزمت استراتيجيًا.. ...   • Find all of Dr. Omar's analyses here:    • عدسات سياسة   🔔 • Don't forget to subscribe to the channel and activate the bell to receive the latest analyses from Dr. Omar Abdel Sattar. 🌐 Social Media: ➤   / omarabdulsatar   ➤   / omar.abdulsattar1   📰 • Iran May Repeat What Saddam Hussein Did • The Strait of Hormuz represents a highly sensitive strategic pressure point between Iran, the Gulf states, and the United States, where military and economic influence intersects in one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. This highlights the potential for an escalating Iranian role in exerting indirect influence through threats to navigation or extortion of passage, in contrast to a relative decline in the reliability of traditional US protection for its allies in the region. Oman's position also stands out as a balancing force that may move towards separate arrangements with Tehran, reflecting changes in the internal dynamics of the Gulf. Historically, since the 1970s, Washington has relied on a deterrence strategy in the Gulf following the British withdrawal. This strategy evolved into direct intervention during the Iran-Iraq War and then the 1990 Gulf War, with the aim of preventing any regional power from controlling vital waterways. But this strategy has become questionable over time due to military costs and the increasing number of attacks on infrastructure and ships. Today, the US faces a dilemma: reduce its military presence to minimize losses or maintain it to ensure deterrence. Withdrawal or retreat could open the door for Iran to expand its influence, while continued presence remains costly and vulnerable to attacks. The result is a fragile balance that depends on maintaining US deterrence as a key element of stability in the Gulf, despite declining confidence among allies in its sustainability. Conversely, any potential security vacuum does not remain theoretical but quickly transforms into an arena for testing influence among regional powers. Furthermore, the ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz makes global energy security directly linked to limited and high-risk deterrence decisions. Ultimately, the region remains caught between a deterrence that is no longer absolute and adversaries who constantly test its limits. 📰 • Iran May Repeat What Saddam Hussein Did • The Strait of Hormuz represents a highly sensitive strategic pressure point between Iran, the Gulf states, and the United States, where military and economic influence intersect in one of the world’s most important energy corridors. the possibility of an expanding Iranian role in exerting indirect influence through threats to maritime navigation or leveraging passage rights, compared with a relative decline in confidence in the United States’ traditional security guarantees for its regional allies. It also emphasizes Oman’s position as a balancing actor that may move toward separate arrangements with Tehran, reflecting shifts in internal Gulf dynamics. Historically, Washington has relied since the 1970s on a deterrence strategy in the Gulf following Britain’s withdrawal. This approach later evolved into direct intervention during the Iran–Iraq War and then the 1990 Gulf War, with the aim of preventing any regional power from controlling vital shipping routes. Over time, however, this strategy has been increasingly questioned due to its military costs and the growing number of attacks on infrastructure and vessels. Today, US decision-making faces a dilemma between reducing its military presence to limit costs and maintaining it to preserve deterrence. Withdrawal or downsizing could create space for Iran to expand its influence, while continued presence remains expensive and vulnerable to attack. The result is a fragile balance that depends on US deterrence as a central pillar of Gulf stability, despite allies becoming less certain about its long-term reliability. Any potential security vacuum would not remain theoretical but would quickly become a testing ground for influence among regional powers. Continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz also tie global energy security directly to limited, high-risk deterrence decisions. In the end, the region remains caught between a deterrence framework that is no longer absolute and rivals that continually probe its limits. #Political_lenses #News #Dr_Omar_Abdul_Sattar #Political_analysis