"100년 걸린다" 조롱하던 일본, 한국이 독자 개발하자 먼저 손 내민 이유

#CarbonFiber #Hyosung #CollapseOfJapaneseMonopoly "Korea won't be able to catch up even if it takes 100 years." A veteran businessman crumpled up this blatant mockery thrown by Japan with his own two hands and returned it in just 14 years. For over 50 years, Japan held that "black thread"—the highest-grade carbon fiber used in missile bodies and rockets, which could not be purchased even with bags of money—like a leash. From the moment Hyosung Chairman Cho Suk-rae jumped into the midst of the 2008 financial crisis and swallowed a deficit of approximately 320 billion won over 14 years to succeed in localization as the third in the world, to the exhilarating reversal where Japan, which had only ever refused, finally extended its hand of its own accord, I examined these events one by one from my desk. 📌 Carbon fiber is 1/10 the thickness of a human hair and weighs 1/4 the weight of iron, but its strength is 14 times that of iron at the highest grade — grades vary from fishing rods and golf clubs (general use) to missiles, rockets, and satellites (highest grade). The highest grade is classified as a strategic material under the 1987 MTCR, requiring a government authorization stamp rather than money to cross borders. 📌 In July 2019, when Japan imposed export restrictions on three items (hydrogen fluoride, photoresist, and fluorinated polyimide), dependence on Japan was approximately 42%, 93%, and 85%, respectively — the entire nation felt firsthand that "a single material is a critical vulnerability of the nation." 📌 Toray (Japan) has held the world's No. 1 position for half a century since its world-first commercialization in 1971 (market share in the 30–40% range); prior to the development of H3065, Japan and the US (Hexcel) were the only countries capable of mass-producing the highest grade T1000. 📌 Hyosung successfully developed H3065 (T1000 grade, tensile strength 6.4 GPa) on October 12, 2022, becoming the third company in the world to do so — exactly 14 years after commencement in 2008, enduring a cumulative deficit of approximately 320 billion won. 📌 Domestic Carbon fiber is actually applied to the Nuri rocket fairing (satellite cover), the KF-21 (65% localization rate of parts), and 700-bar fuel tanks for hydrogen vehicles; Korea ranks second in the world for carbon fiber used in CNG high-pressure containers (market share of approximately 30%). 💡 Goods Money Cannot Buy: Top-grade carbon fiber is a strategic material for missiles and rockets, so it is bound by the MTCR control network → It is a border that requires a government stamp of approval, not a market, and Korea has long been off that list. 💡 The Trap of Not Selling Even After Production: Despite independently developing it as the world's fourth in 2011 and achieving an annual production of 2,000 tons in 2013, it was repeatedly blocked at the threshold of certification as an aerospace and defense supplier because it was considered a "newcomer with no track record" → In 2017, it attempted to obtain the highest grade again as a civil-military cooperation project. 💡 A Battle Against Fire: It is baked in an oxygen-deprived furnace at temperatures high enough to melt even lumps of iron, yet no other company in the world sells products with specific temperature and time scales → The true nature of that deficit lies in acquiring technology without a definitive answer key after thousands of failures. 💡 The reason Japan reached out: Since they could no longer stop Hyosung once it independently produced the highest grade, the calculation was that it was better to bring Hyosung to their side in the face of exploding demand for hydrogen, space, and defense, as well as the common enemy, China. 💡 The real competition starts now: Toray reclaimed the highest intensity with the T1200 (8.0 GPa) in October 2023, while China's new model announced mass production of the T1200 class in March 2026 (though initial annual capacity is 100 tons and yield remains questionable) — China is now replicating the scenario where we chased Japan. 💡 Hyosung's frontal breakthrough: Investing 1 trillion won by 2028, aiming to increase annual production from 2,000 tons to 24,000 tons, and expanding global market share from 2% to 10% (3rd place); competing for high-value-added, top-grade products using facilities in Vietnam. 💡 A sober warning: Even if the industry outlook is good, individual factors... Stock Prices Are a Separate Matter — Deficit from China-led Oversupply in 2024–25, Risks of Copper Prices, Debt, and Overheating. One Must Distinguish Between Industry Growth Potential and Short-term Stock Prices 💡 Remaining Story: Chairman Cho Suk-rae, who famously said, "Go in when no one else is," passed away in March 2024; however, he left after witnessing with his own eyes the reversal scene where Japan extended a helping hand → November 2025, the first night launch of Nuri-4; that fairing is the black thread we created. ※ This video is an economic commentary based o...