아시아에서 한국만 '급락'? '진짜 이유' 따로 있습니다ㅣ이경수 하나증권 수석연구위원

Semiconductor Plunge, KOSDAQ Falls Below 800 Mark… Is This Fear or Opportunity? Semiconductor Plunge, KOSDAQ Falls Below 800 Mark… Is This a Time of Fear or Opportunity? 📉 Today's Stock Market Key Summary ✔ KOSPI and KOSDAQ both plunge ✔ Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix break below 60-day moving averages ✔ Foreign investors continue selling, while institutions buy semiconductors at low prices ✔ Analysis of the structure in which leveraged ETFs amplify volatility ✔ Comprehensive summary of second-half investment strategies and semiconductor outlook 🔍 Summary of Key Points 1️⃣ Why Only the Korean Stock Market Was Shaken So Much The decline in the Korean stock market was particularly wide among Asian markets ✔ Plunge centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ✔ Supply and demand factors had a greater impact than earnings ✔ Concerns about slowing profit growth rates were already priced in Key Point → Market reflects concerns about slowing profit growth rates rather than a "peak-out" 2️⃣ What Is More Important Than Samsung Electronics' Earnings Q2 earnings were strong, exceeding market expectations However,✔ the market has already reflected the Q3 and beyond ✔ KOSPI earnings growth rate is expected to slow ✔ Future growth speed is key, not earnings 3️⃣ Why Leveraged ETFs Are Shaking the Market Recently, retail funds have flowed heavily into leveraged ETFs Inflow However✔ Gamma hedge volume occurs before market close✔ Additional selling pressure intensifies as prices fall✔ A structure where volatility increases Key Conclusion Analysis suggests that for mid-to-long-term investment👉 a strategy of investing in underlying stocks may be more advantageous than leveraged ETFs 4️⃣ Significance of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix breaking below the 60-day moving average Technically✔ Signal of weakening short-term trend✔ Weakening of momentum investor sentiment However, analysis suggests that supply and demand factors had a greater impact than damage to fundamentals 5️⃣ Is the semiconductor industry finished? Experts still diagnose it as not to be the case✔ Solid memory supply and demand✔ Continued HBM demand✔ Expanding global AI investment Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan also✔ Maintain target price✔ Upward revision of 2026–2028 EPS✔ Positive assessment of memory market conditions 6️⃣ AI Investment and Big Tech CAPEX Outlook While concerns about a "slowdown in AI investment" are emerging in the market, the actual consensus is✔ Meta✔ Amazon✔ Major hyperscalers All continue to raise their CAPEX forecasts for next year. In other words, the analysis suggests that the trend of expansion, rather than contraction, in AI investment is being maintained. 7️⃣ Impact of SK Hynix ADR Listing Some worried that "domestic funds are flowing out to ADRs," but Experts explain that✔ LPs will eventually buy back the domestic underlying shares✔ Expanding new overseas investment channels in the long term. In other words, it is difficult to view this as a negative factor regarding supply and demand. 8️⃣ KOSDAQ falls below 800 mark; why was it weaker? KOSDAQ✔ Severe decline for 3 consecutive months✔ Rare intensity of decline since the IT bubble Cause✔ Lack of earnings momentum✔ Valuation Burden✔ Weakening Relative Appeal Compared to KOSPI 9️⃣ Seasonality of the July Market Looking at past statistics, July is a time when profit realization in the first half✔ and portfolio rebalancing are concentrated. Therefore, stock prices often undergo corrections even after strong earnings announcements. 🔟 Current Investment Strategy Key strategies suggested by experts: ✔ Refrain from excessive panic selling ✔ Consider staggered buying of semiconductor blue-chip stocks ✔ Be cautious when chasing leveraged ETFs ✔ Diversify investment in high-dividend, value, and narrative stocks ✔ Pay attention to the possibility of re-evaluating earnings momentum after August 🧩 Conclusion The analysis suggests that the current market is a volatile environment driven more by "supply and demand and sentiment" than by "deteriorating fundamentals." While assessments continue that the semiconductor industry conditions themselves remain robust, structural volatility in leveraged ETFs and seasonal supply and demand changes in July are further shaking the market. Now is the time to review investment strategies centered on earnings and fundamentals rather than short-term fear. #SamsungElectronics #SKHynix #Semiconductor #HBM #AIsemiconductor #MemorySemiconductor #KOSPI #KOSDAQ #StockMarket #Stocks #StockInvestment #DomesticMarket #USMarket #MarketOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #LeverageETF #ETF #GammaHedge #ForeignTrading #InstitutionalBuying #JPMorgan #GoldmanSachs #ADR #SKHynixADR #AI #Meta #Amazon #CAPEX #BigTech #Earnings #EarningsAnnouncement #StockPriceOutlook #SemiconductorOutlook #BuyingDip #SplitBuying #HighDividend #ValueStocks #QuantInvestment #MarketAnalysis #Economy #LeeKyungsoo #LeeGeunhyung #KwonMijung ◎ Program: Market Watch...