싸졌다! 그렇지만 못 산다! "반도체 급락은 끝난 건가요?" l 강관우 l 정헌정 l 김권진

#SKHynix #SamsungElectronics #Semiconductor ▶ 20260714 Reading the Board: Pandora ▶ Mon-Thu 19:00 📈 Hosts: Anchor Jung Yoon-sung / Caster Lee Jung-woo 📈 Guests: ■ Kang Kwan-woo | CEO of The Premier ■ Jung Heon-jung | General Manager, Gangnam WM Center, Hanwha Investment & Securities ■ Kim Kwon-jin | Deputy General Manager, Digital Content Team, KB Securities 📈 KOSPI Support at the 6,800 Level and Signs of a Bottom Rising Amidst Extreme Pessimism ✔️ Rebound After Touching the 120-Day Moving Average (6,500 Level) and the Peak of Deteriorating Investor Sentiment 👉 The KOSPI market threatened its bottom as it plummeted to near the 120-day moving average of 6,500 during the trading session, but it recovered some of its losses towards the end of the session and closed with support at the 6,800 level. Paradoxically, signs of a bottom were detected at the peak of pessimism, where internet comments and public opinion had become extremely hostile and individual investors were abandoning their stocks and fleeing. Foreign investors, institutions, pension funds, and financial investment firms began to secure downside rigidity as they absorbed the intraday sell-off volume through bargain buying. 👉 Deputy General Manager Kim Kwon-jin diagnosed, "If past signals of a peak were entirely laudatory, claiming 'it will go higher,' the current situation is the exact opposite: a state of fear. The flower of the bottom always blooms amidst such extreme pessimism." ✔️ [O/X] Has the market now nearly reached the bottom? 👉 All three panelists (O): While the market may fluctuate for another day or two due to short-term volatility, the current forward P/E ratio is already in an oversold zone, discounted by more than 50% relative to long-term value. Starting with the release of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and earnings announcements from ASML and TSMC, which will begin in earnest this week, the controversy over the peak-out of AI infrastructure investment is expected to subside, and the market is projected to solidify its bottom. 🔥 The "Wag the Dog" Fear of Leveraged ETFs and Conditions for Mitigation ✔️ The Attack of the Derivative Monster Shaking the Spot Market 👉 CEO Kang Kwan-woo stated, "The main culprit behind the extreme amplification of current market volatility is single-stock leveraged ETFs. A 'bad money driving out good' phenomenon is unfolding, where fundamentally sound underlying stocks are plummeting wholesale due to the forced liquidation and herd mentality of derivatives." He pointed out that market confidence will only be restored if financial authorities implement swift and strong institutional measures, such as the introduction of single-price trading for 30 minutes before the market closes. 👉 Although SK Hynix's decline was further intensified by its combination with leveraged ETFs while already possessing high inherent volatility with a beta coefficient of 1.7 (compared to Samsung Electronics' 1.13), the current price level, having fallen to the forward PER of 4–5 times (SK Hynix at 5.3 times, Samsung Electronics in the low 4s), represents the ultimate bargain opportunity for long-term investors, moving beyond the short-term trading zone where one must be cautious of negative compounding effects. ⚡ Responding to the Gap in Earnings Expectations and the Weeding Out of the Second Half • Leading Semiconductor Stocks & Materials, Parts, and Equipment (Top Picks): While SK Hynix's target price is in extreme conflict, ranging from 1.85 million won to 4.3 million won, this is merely a difference between pessimism based on the assumption of price declines and optimism reflecting the value of high-margin HBM4; looking only at the central values, there is ample room for upside. Expectations for a counterattack centered on front-end materials, parts, and equipment (such as Tess, which recorded all-time high order backlogs) remain valid, as they demonstrated solid earnings in the second quarter driven by Chairman Chey Tae-won's remarks on doubling capacity and the momentum from shortening the Yongin cluster development period. • Noise Regarding China's Changxin Memory (CXMT) Listing: Ahead of this week's public offering subscription, rumors are circulating that Apple is using Changxin for price negotiations. However, due to the US regulations on importing EUV equipment, the technological entry barrier (moat) remains solid, making it difficult to threaten the dominance of the domestic top two. • KOSDAQ Bio (Alteogen · Sambaepis): Although Alteogen's supply and demand were temporarily impacted by news of Samsung Bioepis securing exclusive injectable formulation (SC) technology, the bio sector as a whole is still in a narrative phase with a PBR of 10–20 times. Therefore, it is safer to respond after thoroughly filling the main dish of semiconductor stocks, where profit figures are clearly visible. • Safe Havens (Financial Stocks such as Hana Financial Group): As expectations for interest rate cuts recede...