Is A Green July Incoming For Crypto?

Bitcoin closed green on Monday, up 1.15%, but the price remains well below the daily TBO cloud with all four lines pointing down. I am watching short-term resistance steps at 60,941 and 61,962 as overhead targets, and the critical short-term support sits at 59,170. Lose that level on a daily close and I expect Bitcoin to continue lower toward the bear flag target of 47K. The Better Crypto Calendar has been tracking well this cycle. I called red May and red June back in April, and that is exactly what we got. July historically averages a 19% bounce in bottom years, which matches the pattern from 2022 and 2018. Still, one out of fifteen bottom signals is flashing capitulation, so I am not convinced this is the macro low. August historically averages negative 14%, so any July bounce should be treated as a trading opportunity, not a signal that the bottom is in. On the altcoin side, Solana printed its first daily TBO close short since April 2025 after breaking above near-term resistance with a 5% move. Ethereum is down 67% from August and still has not hit the kind of drawdown I would need to feel comfortable calling a bottom. Stablecoin dominance is rising, on-balance volume is flattening on several charts, and complacency at these levels concerns me more than any single green candle. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Monday close and resistance steps overview 03:30 Better Crypto Calendar, July historical data, and bottom year comparison 08:00 TBO cloud analysis and why the macro trend is still bearish 12:00 Short-term support at 59,170 and the bear flag target at 47K 16:30 On-balance volume signal and what a July bounce would mean for alts 18:30 DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and Japan yen all-time high pressure 22:05 S&P Futures, SPX, VIX, Dow, Nasdaq, FANG, Nvidia, and Tesla 26:53 Gold, silver, platinum, copper, PAXG/BTC, and sponsor resources 31:43 XRP, Solana close short, and altcoin TBO signals 36:04 Litecoin, WIF, Hyperliquid, AVAX, SKY, and Morpho 41:15 AAVE, ATOM, Worldcoin, HBAR, SHIB, KAS, RAVE, CHZ, and H 47:18 Viewer picks: USDRUB, BILL, SLX, DOT, DOGE, GWEI, and ALLO 54:13 Stocks review: Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI, CLSK, RIOT, HIMS, NOW, UBER, RDDT, SAP, ZETA, ABTC, TTWO, and Ford 59:58 Bitcoin lottery miner reminder and closing 🔥 Exclusive Resources For You 🔥 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken A trusted, long-running crypto exchange serving traders worldwide. Sign up with my link and start trading safely today! https://invite.kraken.com/JDNW/n2vjiyla 💰 Trade to Earn with Phemex & AFX Phemex is giving away $7M in rewards for its 2026 Ultimate Championship. Sign up to Phemex: https://phemex.com/a/k/MooninPapa AFX is a new decentralized futures trading platform, where it pays to be early and accumulate points. Earn points on AFX: https://app.afx.xyz/?referral=KB2X73 🥇 TBO Indicator The Trending Breakout (TBO for short) indicator is the best TradingView indicator for a reason: it spots trends early, identifies breakouts, and helps me avoid false signals and market noise. Get access to it here: https://www.thebettertraders.com/TBO 💪 Sign up and Trade on Toobit Trade to Earn up to $15,000 in Welcome Rewards with my special link 👉https://go.coinbureau.com/aarontoobit 🦾 Altrady: The Best Automated Crypto Trading Platform Use the best crypto trading platform to automate your trading to the next level. Whether it's DCA bots, Smart Trading, or Grid Bots, Altrady has the best tools available. Save 12% with our special referral link: https://altrady.com?a=thebettertraders 🧑‍🏫 Crypto Trading Education Courses Ready to take your trading to the next level? Learn our proven strategies for making substantial profits through crypto trading, covering Automated Bot Trading, Active Scalping, Day Trading, and Swing Trading at https://www.thebettertraders.com. Our courses are designed to turn you into a trading powerhouse 💪 💡 Mastering Assets Learn the foundational basics of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin with an investor's perspective at Mastering Assets. Get started in crypto with my intro course, The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor: https://masteringassets.com/ 💯 My Official Links Stay in touch with all things crypto by following me across all platforms. Check out https://linktree.com/aarondishner for easy access to Discord, Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok. Follow us for the latest market insights, updates, and more. *Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and none of the information presented in this video should be considered financial advice. All content shared is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.