ESPAÑA O FRANCIA: ¿Quién va a GANAR según los datos? | Podcast HOY EN EL PAÍS

This Tuesday sees one of those matches that brings the entire country to a standstill. Even those who don't usually follow football will be glued to their screens, watching the action from 9:00 PM onwards at the Dallas stadium. The match can be watched live on TVE's La 1 channel. Spain is playing for a spot in the World Cup final against France, one of the powerhouses of international football. There are predictions, yes, but also factors that are impossible to measure. EL PAÍS journalist Kiko Llaneras, along with his team, has developed a statistical model based on a vast database that allows them to estimate the probability of Luis de la Fuente's Spanish team defeating Kylian Mbappé's France. Listen to today's episode, in which Kiko joins Ana Fuentes to analyze what these percentages really mean and how they are calculated. A conversation to understand why the numbers place one team or the other as the favorite before the ball even starts rolling. CREDITS Produced by: Víctor Rojo Presented by: Ana Fuentes Sound Design: Oskar Bogdanowicz CHAPTERS 00:00 - Introduction: Spain-France Semifinal 00:05 - Match Context and Expectations 00:44 - The Use of Data in the World Cup 01:17 - Football and Statistics: How They Combine 01:56 - Data Sources and Predictive Models 03:13 - Example: Spain vs. Belgium 04:04 - Expected Goals and Actual Performance 05:25 - More Data: Technology and FIFA 06:37 - Unforeseen Factors: Injuries and Context 08:26 - Chance in Football 09:33 - Semifinalists and Historical Probability 10:58 - Spain vs. France: Who's in Better Form? 12:48 - Probabilities of Winning the World Cup 14:50 - Tournament simulation and chance in action 17:15 - Probable ending and limits of prediction 18:00 - Skill vs. chance: why football is so captivating