How Trump Just Redrew the Middle East Without Asking Israel | Prof. Jiang Xueqin

In June 2026, the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran — and Israel wasn't in the room. Not a courtesy call. Not a draft for review. Netanyahu admitted publicly he didn't even know what was in the document. In this class, we use game theory, historical pattern analysis, and structural frameworks to answer the questions the news coverage isn't asking: ► Why did the US sideline its closest Middle East ally in its most important regional deal in decades? ► What was Netanyahu actually trying to achieve — and why did the strategy backfire? ► What are the structural fault lines in the US-Iran MOU, and why will Lebanon remain the most dangerous flashpoint in the region? ► What does this mean for the US-Israel relationship over the next decade? We cover: — The patron-client framework and what history tells us about how these relationships shift — Game theory analysis of Netanyahu's two-level game (international + domestic) — The structural ambiguities baked into the MOU's Lebanon provisions — A four-part structural forecast through 2035 This is not news commentary. This is structural analysis. Working from public knowledge only.