Inside the Data: What Cotality's Economist Really Sees

In this episode of Property, Straight Up, host Mel Dennis sits down with Gerard Burg, economist at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), for a data-driven conversation about what is actually happening in Australian property right now. Gerard works with national property data every day, and he brings that perspective to some of the biggest questions buyers, sellers and investors are asking. From Melbourne's slide down the national leaderboard to Adelaide overtaking it for the first time in history, from the structural supply crisis no government target will fix quickly, to the apartment submarkets where owners have been losing money for nearly a decade. WHAT WE COVER: Melbourne's underperformance — real but overstated The negativity around Melbourne has been loud. Gerard walks through what the data actually shows, why affordability is drawing buyers priced out of other markets, and where the genuine opportunity still sits on the map. Why Adelaide overtook Melbourne for the first time ever Population shifts, inadequate supply, and pandemic-era momentum explain the rise. Gerard breaks down whether those conditions are likely to hold. The supply crisis and what it means for prices Construction costs are up. Trades are short. New supply is not coming fast enough to rescue affordability, but those same pressures put a floor under values. Gerard explains the dynamic. Melbourne apartments — where values have fallen and why CBD unit values peaked in March 2017 and have not recovered. Gerard unpacks the oversupply story and identifies which submarkets have been hit hardest. Negative gearing and capital gains changes — early signals The policy changes are fresh. Gerard shares what the data is starting to show and what to watch for in the months ahead. Rate rises and first home buyers Three consecutive rate rises have started to cancel out the benefit of the government's 5% deposit scheme. Gerard explains who is feeling it most and what it means for demand. What people will wish they paid attention to The investors coming out ahead are the ones acting on opportunity rather than waiting to time the bottom perfectly. Gerard's five year outlook is worth hearing. Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction & Welcome 00:54 – Meet Gerard burg, Economist at Cotality 01:36 – Gerard's Background: From NAB Macro Economist to Property Data 03:18 – What Cotality Does Behind the Scenes 04:09 – Why CoreLogic Became Cotality 05:28 – Media Headlines vs. What the Data Actually Shows 06:14 – Melbourne's Affordability Advantage & the Investor Opportunity 08:04 – Why Adelaide Has Overtaken Melbourne for the First Time 09:50 – Is Melbourne's Housing Supply Its Future Advantage? 10:49 – Construction Costs, Trade Shortages & the Supply Crisis 12:19 – New Build Policy: Will It Push Prices Up Further? 14:33 – How Buyer Behaviour Has Changed Since COVID 15:53 – Too Much Data: The Rise of Buyer Advocates & Misread Signals 17:46 – Melbourne Apartments: Where Values Have Fallen & Why 20:08 – Are Parts of Melbourne Undervalued Compared to the Rest of Australia? 21:41 – Negative Gearing & Capital Gains Changes: Early Signals in the Data 23:14 – Interest Rates & First Home Buyers: Who Feels It Most 24:47 – What Will People Wish They'd Paid Attention To in Five Years? 25:35 – Wrap-Up & Key Takeaways ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please subscribe to our channel to see more great content ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------