What Poker Legend Erik Seidel Taught Annie Duke About Rational Thinking

Annie Duke is the author of Thinking in Bets, How to Decide, and Quit, and a former world-class poker player who now advises portfolio managers and venture capitalists on decision-making. In this clip, William talks to Annie about the legendary poker player Erik Seidel, why every decision is probabilistic, and what investors can learn from the world of poker. This video clip comes from an in-depth episode of the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast. To hear the full interview, visit William Green's Markets & Life podcast library at The Investor's Podcast: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/r... 🧭 Topics Covered What Erik Seidel taught Annie about separating bad luck from bad decisions — and why complaining about outcomes is a waste of time. Why Annie disagrees with Howard Marks: everyone is already thinking probabilistically, and making it explicit will make you better. How statistical concepts from poker — like base rates and the Law of Large Numbers — transfer directly to investing. Why the greatest investors, from Buffett and Munger to Ed Thorp and Peter Lynch, are passionate game players. The emotional lesson only repetition can teach: experiencing a 60/40 loss over and over is what makes you truly sanguine about uncertainty. Why Ed Thorp's rule — "if I don't have an edge, I don't play" — is harder to follow than it sounds, and how we fool ourselves into thinking we have one. ⏱ Timestamps / Chapters 00:00:00 Introduction to Erik Seidel 00:01:48 How the game changes over time — and who adapts 00:02:47 The bad beat story: what Seidel taught Annie about losing 00:06:19 Thinking probabilistically — and whether it can be learned 00:07:15 Annie disagrees with Howard Marks 00:08:15 Every decision is a probabilistic forecast 00:11:18 Making implicit predictions explicit at First Round Capital 00:13:28 How poker skills transfer to investing 00:16:06 Near vs. far transfer — poker and options trading 00:16:40 Great investors as serious game players 00:17:36 Why you have to feel probability, not just understand it 00:20:10 Ed Thorp: only play when you have an edge 00:20:43 How we fool ourselves into thinking we have an edge ✅ Connect with William Green Website: https://williamgreenwrites.com/ LinkedIn:   / william-green-richerwiserhappier   Twitter/X: @WilliamGreen72 ⚠️ Disclaimer / Disclosures This content is for general informational purposes only. Opinions are those of William Green and Annie Duke and do not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. This clip comes from a 2022 William Green Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast with Annie Duke. #️⃣ Hashtags #WilliamGreen #Investing #ValueInvesting #RicherWiserHappier #LongTermInvesting #GlobalValue