Ramiro Castiñeira: el crédito en Argentina pasó de 5% a 12% del PIB

Ramiro Castiñeira, an economist at Econométrica and a member of the channel's Advisory Board, explains why the Argentine economy is growing at two speeds—the export sector is booming while consumption has yet to take off—and when this will change. He also discusses credit, interest rates, the RIGI (General Investment Fund), and why Argentina may finally be breaking free from 80 years of Keynesian economics. Why doesn't consumption reflect the export boom? What does Argentina need for credit to reach 40% of GDP, like the rest of Latin America? When will RIGI investments impact the real economy? All this and much more in this interview. ─────────────────────────── 🎯 PRIVATE INVESTORS' TABLE ────────────────────────── Would you like to analyze your portfolio with us in a small, in-person meeting? Reserve your spot here 👇 https://clubdeinversores.com/mejores-... ────────────────────────── 📑 CHAPTERS ─────────────────────────── 00:00 The economy is growing, but consumption isn't reflecting it—why? 01:15 Welcome: who is Ramiro Castiñeira and what will we talk about? 02:33 Two-speed growth: booming exporters, lagging consumption 03:44 Records in agriculture, oil, gas, lithium, dairy, and yerba mate 05:10 Supply is growing faster than demand—and that's structural 05:51 From deficit to surplus everywhere: trade, energy, and current account 07:22 When does consumption start keeping pace with production? 08:05 Next year the two variables will run in tandem 09:22 80 years of the Keynesian trap: artificially stimulated consumption 10:35 Corporate Argentina and the return to the closed economy model 12:06 Frondizi tried it — and corporate Argentina kicked him out 14:10 Menem also tried it — but financed spending with debt and privatizations 17:03 First time in 80 years that Argentina has structurally escaped this trap 19:37 Two key differences with Frondizi and Menem: surplus + export platform 21:28 🎯 Private investor roundtable — reserve your spot 22:09 Export-led growth — Sturzenegger was right 22:46 Credit: from 5% of GDP in 2023 to 12% today 24:03 Argentina reached the credit level of the poorest countries in Africa 25:32 Crowding out → Crowding in: the State steps aside and credit reaches the private sector 27:43 From investing in LEBACs and LELIQs to investing in YPF and mining — the lexicon has changed 29:25 The resurgence of credit and the increase in delinquency — both are learning 30:45 The interest rate: the Central Bank no longer sets it — the market does 32:55 Negative real interest rate in pesos but positive in dollars — the carry trade today 34:11 The exchange rate: look at the flow, not the historical graph 37:06 The market says: the dollar is stable because the macroeconomy is generating real dollars 38:55 The "Dutch disease" doesn't exist — exporting is part of the solution 41:08 Asian countries escaped poverty by exporting — here they call it a disease 44:07 The wall of dollars that's coming: mining, LNG, oil — and it hasn't even started yet 47:08 The RIGI: why Paraguay has the "ultra" RIGI for its entire economy 50:11 Argentina still has export taxes, currency controls, and a bank debit tax that its neighbors don't have 52:33 USD 140 billion submitted — USD 40 billion approved — 30% still needs to be settled 57:37 The RIGI timeline: settlements have just begun 59:43 Is Milei's reelection necessary to sustain this process? 1:00:32 More parties that defend capitalism are needed — today there is only one 1:00:54 Closing ────────────────────────── 🎓 ABOUT INVESTORS CLUB ────────────────────────── Investors Club is the investment community led by Miguel Boggiano. We have been offering macroeconomic analysis, investor tools, and educational content for over 15 years. ────────────────────────── 🔔 FOLLOW US ────────────────────────── 🌐 Web: https://clubdeinversores.com/ 📧 Newsletter: https://clubdeinversores.com/suscribi... 📸 Instagram:   / club.deinversores   💼 LinkedIn:   / clubdeinversores   🐦 X / Twitter: https://x.com/InversoresClub #InvestorsClub #ArgentineInvestments #ArgentineEconomy #Investments #CDI