JP모건의 환율전망 "원화 가치 급반등 할 것". 신흥국 통화 과도하게 저평가 되었다. [즉시분석]

#JPMorgan #ExchangeRate #ExchangeRateForecast #KRWUSDExchangeRate #KRW #Yen #Yuan #Liquidity #M1 #M2 #MoneySupply #SKHynix #ADR #Listing [Immediate Analysis] JPMorgan's Exchange Rate Forecast: "KRW Value to Rebound Sharply." Emerging Market Currencies Are Excessively Undervalued. 1. Sharp Reversal in KRW/USD Exchange Rate? 2. Exchange Rate Anomalies 3. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention 4. J.P.Morgan Asset Management's Assessment 5. Speed ​​of Liquidity Supply to Korea and the US JPMorgan Asset Management Reduces Bets on Yuan and Shifts to Korean Won and Peso... 2027 Forecasted as a 'Major Variable' Year for Asian Foreign Exchange Markets J.P. Julio Callegari, Head of Asian Bonds at Morgan Stanley Asset Management, stated that over the past few weeks, the firm has been reducing its long positions on the Chinese yuan against the US dollar and shifting funds to high-yield currencies such as the Philippine or Mexican peso. Callegari predicted that the South Korean won, which has underperformed this year, will deliver the biggest turnaround (surprise) in the Asian foreign exchange market in 2027, driven by a reassessment of the US Federal Reserve's policies and a trend toward a weaker dollar. While the yuan's fundamentals remain solid and there is a possibility it could strengthen to the 6.5 yuan per dollar level by the end of the year, most positive factors have already been priced into the current rally, limiting further short-term upside potential. Conversely, the rebound potential of other Asian currencies appears more attractive at present. Following a significant strengthening of the Chinese yuan, major global asset managers are adjusting their foreign exchange strategies, turning their attention to other Asian currencies that offer higher returns and rebound potential. Julio Callegari, Director of Asian Bond Investment at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that he has been steadily reducing his long positions on the yuan against the US dollar over the past few weeks and predicted that the South Korean won, which has been weak this year, will be the protagonist of the biggest turnaround in the Asian foreign exchange market in 2027. This massive asset management firm, which manages a massive $4.3 trillion in assets, assesses that while the yuan's fundamentals are solid, there is limited room for further short-term gains as it has already shown strength and most upward factors have been priced in. On the other hand, some Asian currencies are emerging as more attractive investment opportunities due to their low valuations and high yield characteristics. Fund Flows Shifting to High-Yield Currencies Callegari noted that while a weak dollar may continue to support the value of the yuan, he expects the rebound in other Asian currencies to be greater. He stated, "If the dollar weakens and China's trade and current account conditions remain favorable, the yuan could rise to the 6.5 yuan per dollar level by the end of the year," but added, "However, for now, I am seeing more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere." According to market data, the yuan is outperforming Asian currencies this year, although it has recently retreated slightly from the high recorded last month (the highest since 2023). According to analysis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the yuan has appreciated by approximately 3% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, recording the highest growth rate among major Asian currencies. The effective exchange rate (trade-weighted rate), calculated using the CFETS RMB Index, has also risen to its highest level in nearly four years. Against this backdrop, J.P. Morgan Asset Management has adjusted its portfolio weightings toward high-yield currencies such as the Philippine peso and the Mexican peso. Callegari explained that at this juncture, when the monetary policy stances of major central banks could shift, these high-interest currencies offer an excellent risk-reward structure. *Korean Won Attracts Attention as a Promising 'Dark Horse'* In particular, Callegari singled out the Korean Won, forecasting that it could show significant strength in the foreign exchange market next year. He pointed out that if a reassessment of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies coincides with a correction in the U.S. stock market, the value of undervalued Asian currencies could be significantly repriced, and the Won is in a favorable position to ride this trend. Although the Won showed relatively sluggish performance among Asian currencies this year, JPMorgan Asset Management believes that this poor performance has actually created room for a rebound. If global capital flows change, there is a possibility that the undervalued Won could experience a considerably strong "surprise" rally. ** Industry experts analyze that this view by JPMorgan Asset Management reflects large institutional investors' expectations for a general revaluation of the Asian foreign exchange market. As the yuan ha...