Tax-Smart Investing, Why Bonds Are Back, and the Sentiment Paradox

Andy is recording from a hotel room in Seattle, attending the Basis Northwest Conference, a two-day deep dive into esoteric tax strategies run by Brent Sullivan of Tax Alpha Insider. The episode opens with a walkthrough of what tax-centric wealth management looks like in practice, including asset location, direct indexing, tax-loss harvesting, and the 351 ETF conversion on the investment side, and Roth conversions, charitable giving strategy, and lifetime tax efficiency on the planning side. The second topic is bonds. Interest rates spiked last week, and Adam walks through a chart plotting ten-year Treasury starting yields against forward returns since the early nineties. With last year's starting yield at 4.6%, forward-looking bond returns are projecting just under 6% annualized. Andy's read is that 4.6% sits right in the middle of the historical range. This is a normalization, not a warning sign. Consumer sentiment is near its lowest level on record, driven in part by the U.S.-Iran war and fuel price concerns, while the stock market sits near all-time highs and earnings keep growing. Adam and Andy discuss the K-shaped economy, the politics angle, and why sentiment this low has historically preceded strong forward returns. Andy closes with Ben Carlson's thought experiment - even an investor who bought only at all-time highs throughout history still averaged around 8% annually over the long run. ⏱️ Timestamps: (00:49) Intro: Andy live from Seattle at the Basis Northwest Conference (01:35) Asset location and matching investments to account types (04:57) Direct indexing and tax-loss harvesting at scale (06:44) Adam on the planning side: lifetime tax efficiency vs. the single-year bill (10:36) Why CPAs push back on Roth conversions and why that's shortsighted (11:10) The ten-year distribution rule and multi-generational tax planning (13:05) Bond market update and why rates spiked last week (14:02) The ten-year yield chart: starting yield vs. forward return (17:42) Stocks vs. bonds: why equities still win over the long run (19:20) University of Michigan sentiment survey: 44.8, an all-time low (22:06) The K-shaped economy and whether politics explains the gap (26:28) Ben Carlson's all-time highs thought experiment (27:46) Wrap and listener questions (27:28) Podcast disclosures Resources: Long Story Short website | burneywealth.com/podcast Follow Burney Wealth Management on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/company/burneywealthmanagement Follow Adam Newman on Linkedin | www.linkedin.com/in/adam-newman-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-mst-ricp%C2%AE-cepa-48853916/ Follow Andy Pratt on LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/andyjpratt/ Tax Alpha Insider Substack by Brent Sullivan | https://www.taxalphainsider.com/ Ben Carlson / A Wealth of Common Sense | https://awealthofcommonsense.com/ CNBC “Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries” | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/consu... University of Michigan Survey of Consumers | https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ #taxplanning #wealthmanagement #rothconversions #bondmarket #consumersentiment #investing #personalfinance #longterminvesting The Burney Company is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Burney Wealth Management is a division of the Burney Company. Registration with the SEC or any state securities authority does not imply that Burney Company or any of its principals or employees possesses a particular level of skill or training in the investment advisory business or any other business. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as personalized investment advice or a recommendation.