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Global markets were still on an upward path last week until Friday, with US stock indexes repeatedly hitting new all-time highs; however, on the last trading day of the week, a wave of risk aversion formed, causing markets to fall significantly. Contrary to expectations, the tense meeting between China and the US did not have a significant impact on the markets; on the contrary, the sharp jump in bond yields in the US, UK and Japan became the most important concern for the markets. At the same time, US inflation data has also strengthened inflation expectations. In such an environment, economists estimate a 30% chance of a US economic recession in the next 12 months. 1:57 US inflation data 8:32 US-China meeting 15:32 Comparison of oil prices and interest rate expectations 20:53 Rising bond yields 34:58 Interaction between economies in the world 38:00 Stock market on Friday 44:30 Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg predict a recession in the US economy 51:30 The week ahead