금리 브레이크·레버리지 규제, TSMC 사상 최대 실적 폭발에도 요동치는 국장… 트럼프 수혜 조선주 불장 vs 전력기기 속도 조절 l 허반석·안인기·김동엽·최창규 l 더 워룸 2부

#EngineAndBrake #38SidecarsThisYear #BONKBaseInterestRateHike #LeverageETFRegulation #TSMCEarningsSurprise #TrumpShipbuildingCooperation #ShipbuildingSupercycle #ReliefOfPowerEquipmentOverheating #BoxRangeMarket 👤 Cast Information Ahn In-ki | CEO, Kangho Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. Heo Ban-seok | CEO, Momentum Tree Kim Dong-yeop | CEO, S1 Investment Research Institute Choi Chang-gyu | Head of ETF Research, Mirae Asset Management 💡 Today's Code Name Key Point (Fluctuating Market): An extremely volatile market is currently unfolding, triggering approximately once every two trading days (18 buys vs. 20 sells) based on June and July figures, with a cumulative total of 38 times this year, approaching 40% of the all-time total. However, as TSMC recorded an earnings surprise with Q2 revenue of $40.2 billion and an operating profit margin of 60.3%, and declared that "AI demand will remain robust through 2029–2030," the semiconductor market outlook remains steadfast. Since signs of shifting foreign investor sentiment are being detected, such as expectations for a buy-back on SK Hynix, stop-losses should be tight, while rebounds should be handled with patience. Response should be taken only after confirming that Samsung Electronics has surpassed 260,000 won and SK Hynix 1.9 million won, while maintaining a firm positive outlook on semiconductor stocks and a holding strategy. ⚔️ Supply & Demand Analysis Room 📉 ① Should I Buy – Shipbuilding (Still Hungry) Kim Dong-yeop: With the gap in shipbuilding capacity between the U.S. and China widening to approximately 200 times, President Trump has expressed strong interest in domestic warship construction capabilities and mentioned the possibility of cooperation. Despite the barrier of the 'Burns-Tollefson Act,' which in principle restricts the overseas construction of U.S. Navy vessels, a new momentum for Korea-U.S. shipbuilding cooperation has begun to overcome this obstacle. Choi Chang-kyu: If Trump's remarks translate into actual orders, the structural growth of the domestic shipbuilding industry will get on track. Strong upside potential remains valid, driven by expectations of a supercycle, centered on "gem" companies that have secured high-profit orders, such as Samsung Heavy Industries, which stands out for its earnings visibility, and Hanwha Ocean, which holds momentum specializing in the defense sector. 📉 ② Armrest – Power Equipment (Breakdown on Positive News) Kim Dong-yeop: Fundamental strength is overwhelming, driven by expectations of expanded investment in power grids and transmission/distribution networks due to government mega-projects, and Hyosung Heavy Industries recording a record-high 4.2 trillion won in new orders in the first quarter. While domestic companies are expected to raise their annual targets in line with the upward guidance of global competitors, they are currently experiencing short-term fluctuations due to supply and demand imbalances caused by the over-reliance on semiconductors. Choi Chang-kyu: The stock price correction, despite the announcement of massive positive news such as cooperation with Infineon Technologies, is a process of resolving short-term overheating rather than a deterioration in growth potential. As we have moved beyond blind faith in simple growth stories and entered a phase of thoroughly verifying earnings and orders, the opportunity for price corrections in LS ELECTRIC and Hyosung Heavy Industries should be considered as new areas of interest. 📝 Tomorrow's Market iF Report ① What if ETF regulations are fully implemented starting tomorrow? – Kim Dong-yeop The government has announced high-intensity regulations, including a provisional suspension of new single-stock leverage ETF launches and raising the minimum deposit requirement to 30 million won. Since this policy aims to limit the entry threshold for general investors rather than shaking the institutional structure itself, a wait-and-see attitude may intensify in the morning session in the short term, but trading activity is expected to continue in the afternoon. The demand for leveraged ETFs, which aim for high returns under the same price conditions, is expected to remain high. ② What if Samsung Electronics also lists ADRs? – Choi Chang-gyu If Samsung Electronics jumps into the NASDAQ ADR listing following the success of SK Hynix's night ADR, it will serve as a catalyst for an unimaginable influx of massive global dollar funds into the Yeouido trading room. This would provide a powerful stepping stone to fundamentally resolve the chronic "Korea Discount" and, at the same time, trigger a massive "money move" that completely overturns the landscape of the domestic stock market. #SellSideCarTriggered #VolatilitySwamp #BankOfKoreaInterestRateHike #275PercentAnnual #LeverageETFRegulation #TSMCEarnings #EarningsSurprise #TrumpBeneficiaryStocks #HanwhaOcean #SamsungHeavyIndustries #LSELECTRIC #HyosungHeavyIndustries #SupplyAndDemandTwistRelief #Ri...