Scenario Planning for Change Leaders. Jeremy Bentham

A few things worth paying attention to in this one: Scenario planning is not a forecasting trick — it’s a discipline for leaders who want to make wiser decisions when the future refuses to behave. If you’re only planning for one version of the future, Jeremy Bentham would say you’re drifting toward lazy strategy. And influence matters as much as insight — because senior leaders rarely want to be taught, but they can still be helped to see. Jeremy Bentham joins me for a conversation about scenario planning, strategic thinking, and what it takes to lead change when certainty is not on offer. Jeremy spent sixteen years leading Shell’s scenarios team, and he brings both the intellectual depth and the practical craft of someone who’s worked at the sharp end of strategy inside a global organization. What I like about this conversation is that it rescues scenario planning from the world of abstract strategy decks. Jeremy makes the case that this is not about producing impressive documents. It’s about understanding the landscape ahead — the steady forces, the critical uncertainties, the plausible alternatives — so you can make decisions that are more robust, more resilient, and frankly less naïve. We also get into the human side of change leadership. How do you help powerful people think differently without triggering resistance? Jeremy has a wonderfully grounded answer: don’t try to teach them. Create the conditions where they discover something for themselves. 🎯 What You’ll Learn Why scenario thinking is a leadership mindset, not just a planning exercise How to separate steady expectations from critical uncertainties Why “lazy strategy” starts with assuming one future How to use consequential key beliefs to sharpen strategic decisions What helps senior leaders learn without feeling they’re being taught ⏱️ Timestamps • 00:00 — Introduction and why scenario planning matters • 02:00 — Scenario thinking as strategic character • 05:30 — Currents, countercurrents, and plausible futures • 08:30 — Mapping importance vs uncertainty • 13:00 — Identifying critical uncertainties • 18:30 — From scenarios to better decisions • 24:30 — Why leaders resist being taught • 30:30 — Helping people discover insights themselves • 36:30 — The “drip drip” approach to influence • 42:30 — Creating the corporate sandbox • 48:30 — Key beliefs and decision-making • 54:30 — Avoiding the fate of the dodo 💡 About Jeremy Bentham Jeremy Bentham is a strategist, scenario planner, and former leader of Shell’s scenarios team, where he led the function for sixteen years. He is known for helping organizations think more clearly about uncertainty, strategy, energy transition, and the long view — and for translating scenario thinking into better decisions, not just better documents. 👉 Resources & Links • Change Signal newsletter • More Change Signal episodes • Jeremy Bentham’s newsletter — The Dodo Club (Change Signal) 🏷️ Tags #ScenarioPlanning #ChangeLeadership #Transformation #StrategicThinking #ChangeManagement #Leadership #OrganizationalChange #FutureOfWork