台海一旦開打，所有人都輸：CSIS×MIT 65次兵推的殘酷答案｜為何北京始終不敢動手？| ByBy

Become a member of this channel and receive benefits:    / @byby-v6n   Why has Beijing consistently hesitated to take action against Taiwan? This film uses 65 war games conducted by CSIS and MIT from 2023 to 2025 as its main focus, dissecting two combat methods: amphibious invasion and maritime blockade. The simulations show that the CCP faces a 130-kilometer natural moat in the Taiwan Strait, only about 14 beaches suitable for landing, a short window of weather, and limited amphibious transport capacity. The US, Japan, and Taiwan could severely damage troop transport fleets with submarines and long-range anti-ship missiles; even if they win, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. More alarmingly, if an invasion fails, the risk of nuclear escalation increases dramatically, with some scenarios ending in nuclear war. A blockade, seemingly low-risk, is actually highly susceptible to escalation and can cripple one's own military and economy. Economically, Taiwan safeguards its global supply chain with its "silicon shield": over 90% of advanced chips are produced in Taiwan, and a war could wipe out over $10 trillion in global GDP in the first year. The video also analyzes gray-area tactics, energy vulnerabilities, and Japan's role. The conclusion is harsh: in a Taiwan Strait war, everyone loses; true victory is preventing war from ever starting. Watch the full analysis to understand how deterrence maintains peace and the preparations we should make. If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, everyone loses: The harsh answers from 65 CSIS x MIT war games | Why has Beijing consistently hesitated to act?