¿Por qué la gasolina sube más que el barril de petróleo en plena guerra EEUU-Irán? Emanoelle Santos

Why is gasoline rising faster than oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict? Emanoelle Santos Emanoelle Santos, market analyst at XTB, has addressed the impact of the surge in volatility in energy commodities driven by the military escalation in the Middle East between the United States and Iran, as well as the decoupling between the price of crude oil and the accelerated rise in refined fuel prices. He also assessed the factors driving the rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ahead of the release of earnings reports from the technology sector. In the energy market, Brent crude is trading around $92 per barrel amid ongoing armed hostilities, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and threats of blockades on Red Sea routes by Houthi militias. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the scenario of an effective truce would set an average price of $74 per barrel for July, while scenarios of prolonged disruption to maritime traffic or attacks on infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would push the price above $120 during the fourth quarter of the year. Regarding the disproportionate increase in the price of end-use fuels compared to the price of crude oil, Santos clarifies that the main cause lies in the widening of the refining margin (crack spread). The limited operating capacity of refineries in the United States, coupled with the contraction of inventories from Russia and the Middle East, has increased the gasoline margin by 60% year-on-year during the second quarter, while the margins for diesel and jet fuel have doubled. The end consumer thus simultaneously absorbs the geopolitical risk premium on the raw material and the costs of bottlenecks in the refining and distribution phases. Finally, Wall Street's bullish performance—reflected in the gains of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq—is due to short covering after three consecutive sessions of declines, the recovery of the semiconductor sector, and optimism surrounding the corporate results of Alphabet and Tesla. Regarding the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which has risen by nearly 50 basis points since the start of the conflict, Santos maintains that equities can absorb returns close to 4.60%, provided that the profit forecasts for artificial intelligence offset the higher cost of capital. #interview #oil #gasoline #wallstreet #usa #iran #middleeast #brent #wti #market #economy #war #energy #geopolitics #businesstv 🔞Disclaimer: All information, material, and/or content included in this program is for informational and educational purposes only. Investing in stocks, options, and futures is risky and not suitable for all investors. Consult your own independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Business TV is not responsible for the opinions expressed in the video.