BYD: miracolo industriale o nuovo caso Evergrande? 🤔

The global automotive landscape, dominated for a century by the Germany-Japan-US axis, is experiencing an unprecedented upheaval. While until twenty years ago, the idea that a Chinese battery manufacturer could threaten giants like Mercedes or Volkswagen seemed almost grotesque, the data from the last two years shows us a brutal reality: the paradigm has changed. And BYD (Build Your Dreams) is the undisputed protagonist, but also the most controversial case of the decade. The "debacle" of Western champions The numbers from the last year speak of a veritable hemorrhage for established manufacturers. In 2025, Mercedes saw its profits collapse by 28%, while Porsche suffered a 92% contraction in net income. Even more alarming is the situation at Stellantis, which posted a record loss of $26 billion, the worst in its history. In Germany, Volkswagen was forced to announce the cut of 15,000 jobs, a sign of surrender that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. While the West struggles, BYD has filled every empty space: in Thailand, it has captured 40% of the EV market in just 18 months; in Brazil, it holds 72%. Even in the heart of Europe, the market share of Chinese brands has exceeded 11%, challenging the competitive barriers of Renault and Audi. The Doping of Subsidies and the "In-House" Model BYD's success rests on an extreme vertical integration strategy (it produces everything from semiconductors to the famous Blade Battery in-house) and massive state support. Between 2015 and 2020, the company received approximately $4.3 billion in direct subsidies from Beijing. In 2016, the public funds received actually exceeded the company's entire net profit: without the state, BYD would technically have been loss-making. Analysts estimate that each vehicle sold enjoys an artificial competitive advantage of between $2,000 and $4,000. The financial warning: €42 billion in debt However, it's the analysis of the "shadow" balance sheets that raises the greatest concerns. While BYD officially declares debt of 42 billion yuan, an explosive report from GMT Research revealed that the actual exposure is close to 323 billion yuan (about €42 billion). This enormous difference is hidden in so-called supply chain financing. BYD pays its suppliers on average after 275 days (9 months), compared to an industry average of 50-60 days. In economic terms, BYD is using its suppliers as a zero-interest bank, accumulating commercial debt that rivals, in terms of dynamics, the one that led to the collapse of real estate giant Evergrande. The cracks in the Chinese "dream" 2026 has begun with disturbing signs. BYD's global sales in the first month of the year plunged 41% year-over-year, and net profit for 2025 has already fallen 19%. Doubts are also emerging about the veracity of the sales figures: the practice of "zero-kilometer sales"—thousands of cars registered to shell companies to inflate reports—has created huge graveyards of unsold vehicles in the Chinese countryside. For the European economy, the lesson is clear: BYD's challenge is not just technological, but systemic. Whether we are facing a new global leader or a financial bubble fueled by supplier debt will be revealed in the coming months. But one thing is certain: free market rules have never been applied in Shenzhen. BYD Case Numbers: €42 billion: Estimated real debt (323 billion yuan), including outstanding payments to suppliers. 275 days: The average wait time for a BYD supplier before being paid. $4.3 billion: Direct subsidies received from the Chinese government over 5 years. -41%: Global sales decline recorded at the beginning of 2026. 212,000: Vehicles recalled between 2024 and 2025 for serious structural defects.