ТАДЖИКИСТАН ПОСЛЕ ПРЕЗИДЕНТСТВА ЭМОМАЛИ РАХМОНА: КТО ПОЛУЧИТ ВЛАСТЬ?

Emomali Rahmon has led Tajikistan for over three decades. Is a transfer of power within the presidential family possible? Is there a chance for a political alternative? What role might migrant workers play in the country's future? In this episode, Polish Radio journalist Olena Mishchenko speaks with Muhiddin Kabiri, the leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP), which is banned in Tajikistan, and the chairman of the National Alliance of Tajikistan. Kabiri lives in Europe and has political refugee status. We discuss repression, political prisoners, the role of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's family, the possible transfer of power to his son, Rustam Emomali, competition within the ruling clan, a complaint to the International Criminal Court, and why, according to Kabiri, the international community provides little assistance to the Tajik opposition. A separate topic is migrant workers from Tajikistan in Russia. According to Kabiri, they remain one of the main forces capable of influencing the situation in the country: their remittances are critical to the economy, but Moscow is using the migration issue as a tool to pressure Dushanbe. Russia can blackmail Tajik President Emomali Rahmon with the threat of deporting migrants, while the regime itself, according to the opposition leader, prefers not to protect its citizens to avoid conflict with the Kremlin. We also discuss Tajikistan's dependence on Russia and China, relations with Afghanistan and the Taliban, public fear of a new civil war, the weakness of international human rights mechanisms, and the question of whether a change of power in Tajikistan is possible without a revolution or coup. In this issue: — Why a change of power in Tajikistan could occur within the family of President Emomali Rahmon; — Who could succeed the president; — Competition within the ruling family; — Why Emomali Rahmon has not yet handed over power; — Political prisoners, torture, and repression in Tajikistan; — A complaint to the International Criminal Court against Emomali Rahmon; — Why the West is weakly responding to events in Tajikistan; — How Russia is pressuring Dushanbe through labor migrants; — Why Tajik migrants could become a political force; — Tajikistan's dependence on Russia and China; — What is happening in Dushanbe's relations with the Taliban; — Does Tajikistan have a chance for political change? ✅ Subscribe to the Polish Radio channel in Russian and write in the comments: Is Tajikistan doomed to family transit and dependence on Russia? Polish Radio Abroad notes that the views expressed in this publication are those of our interviewees and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editorial board. #tajikistan #rahmon #russia #migrants #centralasia