JUROS em alta, RISCO FISCAL e a INDÚSTRIA | com MARCOS MENDES e JORGE ARBACHE | Dois Pontos #56

The devaluation of the real against the dollar and the effects of the weather are expected to continue negatively impacting inflation at the end of this year and the beginning of 2025. With inflation expectations deviating from the target, the Central Bank has begun a cycle of raising the Selic rate. According to analysts consulted by Estadão/Broadcast, concern about the direction of Brazil's fiscal policy also weighs on this prolonged tightening of interest rates. How does the current situation affect the country's industrial sector? Will higher interest rates inhibit investment plans by large companies? On the other hand, could the devalued real help boost exports? Should the government implement public policies aimed at the sector to try to mitigate the problem? To discuss these issues, the guests on this week's episode of Dois Pontos are economist Marcos Mendes, PhD in Economics from USP and associate researcher at Insper, and Jorge Arbache, professor at the University of Brasília, former vice-president of the private sector at the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean and chief economist at the Ministry of Planning in the Michel Temer government. The episode is presented by Estadão columnist Roseann Kennedy, with the participation of special reporter and Estadão columnist in Brasília, Alvaro Gribel. Production: Carla Menezes, Everton Oliveira Editing: Júlia Pereira Recorded at Agência Voz -- Subscribe for R$1.90/month and get unlimited access to Estadão content. Access: http://bit.ly/ofertaestadao Chapters: 0:00 - Rising interest rates, fiscal risk and industry 2:30 - Is there a risk of the crisis leaving the financial environment and affecting real life? 6:28 - What about the industrial sector? 15:03 - How should we deal with these issues? 18:24 - What generates the most fear among domestic and foreign investors? 23:09 - Tax reform 29:42 - Is the industrial sector more exposed? 50:20 - How does Trump's return to power influence investments in Brazil? 59:36 - Degree of macroeconomic imbalance