Mid-Summer Shocker - Is El Nino Stalling?

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast (Episode #633) for the week starting Sunday, July 5th, 2026. Current marine conditions, short term forecast out 2 weeks including snow and precipitation forecasts, and the long term forecast going out a month to year or more for surf, snow and rain based on projections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and ENSO (El Nino/La Nina). Click the 'Thumbs Up' icon if you liked the video. To subscribe to get an automatic notification when we post a new video just click the Stormsurf Icon down in the lower right hand corner of the screen. If you have question or an opinion - even if it's contrary to this weeks thesis - post a comment. We try to reply to every comment. Contributions always welcome. Use the 'Super Thanks' button (the Heart with the $ sign in it) to donate a few dollars. It is always appreciated. And visit our website at www.Stormsurf.com to follow along during the week to view all the details, including wave models, weather models, snow models, surf forecasts and so much more: http://www.stormsurf.com Thanks for watching! OUTLINE Introduction Current Ocean Conditions Global Significant Wave Height Current Conditions/Buoy Analysis (46029, 029, 191, 239) Significant Wave Height Hindcast (SPac, NPac, NAtla, SAtla, Indian Ocean) Pacific & Global Atmospheric, Oceanic and Surf Projections Jetstream Forecast (NPac) Surface Pressure/Wind Forecast Super Typhoon Bavi Significant Wave Height Forecast (NPac, SPac) Significant Wave Height Forecast (NAtla, SAtla, Indian Ocean) California and Hawaii Local Wind Forecast Spot Surf Forecasts (PNW, NCAL, SCal, HI) Long Term Outlook Equatorial Wind Conditions Zonal Wind Analysis (TAO) 5 day Zonal Surface Wind Hindcast MJO Forecasts 2 Week OLR/MJO Forecast and MJO Phase Diagrams 2 week GFS Zonal Wind Anomaly Forecast 1 month CFS Zonal Wind Anomaly Forecast 3 month CFS Zonal Wind Anomaly, MJO and Pressure Bias Subsurface Water Temp Analysis Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (TOA) Subsurface Water Temp Analysis (GODAS) Pentad Geoid Sea Level Anomaly Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies (1 Year Trend) Equatorial Sea Surface Temp Analysis Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Alternate SST Anomaly Values 7 & 15 day SST Anomaly Trend CDAS NINO 1.2 & 3.4 Anomaly Trend RONI Weekly SSTA Values Equatorial Current - Notice east anomalies in the East Atmospheric Pressure Analysis/SOI Southern Oscillation Index SOI 30 day Graph ENSO Analysis/Forecast CFS Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly Forecast - Notice the Stall SSTA Closeup Comparison Coupling Status - 1 yr OLR Summary Credits --- Contents of This Video 0:00 Introduction 2:55 Current Ocean Conditions 13:54 Pacific and Global Atmospheric, Oceanic and Surf Projections 31:49 Long Term Outlook 32:05 Equatorial Wind Conditions 38:32 MJO Forecasts 48:09 Equatorial Subsurface Water Temp Analysis 54:50 Equatorial Sea Surface Temp Analysis 59:34 Atmospheric SOI/Pressure Analysis 1:02:45 ENSO Analysis/Forecast 1:11:39 Summary 1:17:52 Credits