How to Calculate Flood Probability Using AEP | Hydrology Tutorial

Hydrologic frequency analysis is essential for flood risk assessment, infrastructure design, and water resources engineering. In this tutorial, I solve several practical examples of hydrologic probability calculations, focusing on Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) — the most widely used metric for describing the rarity of flood events. Through step-by-step examples, you’ll learn how engineers calculate the probability of floods occurring during the lifetime of infrastructure, and how AEP is used to quantify hydrologic risk in real-world applications. This video is particularly useful for civil engineering students, hydrologists, and flood modellers who want to strengthen their understanding of hydrologic frequency analysis and probability concepts. Also, watch our video on hydrologic frequency: AEP, EY, and ARI Explained: Definitions, Formulas, & Misconceptions    • AEP, EY, and ARI Explained: Definitions, F...   ________________________________________ ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:38 Example 1 – Probability of no flood occurrence during the asset lifetime 01:27 Example 2 – Probability of at least one flood during the asset lifetime 01:59 Example 3 – Probability of only one flood event during the asset lifetime 02:52 Example 4 – Probability of multiple flood events during the asset lifetime 03:11 Example 5 – Calculating design AEP for an acceptable risk 04:00 Key takeaways ________________________________________ 🎓 What you will learn • How Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) works • How to calculate flood probability over the life of infrastructure • Practical hydrologic frequency calculation examples ________________________________________ 🔎 Keywords #hydrologicfrequency #AEP #hydrologytutorial #hydrologicprobability #floodfrequency #floodrisk #floodestimation #riskanalysis #civilengineertraining #civilengineering #floodprobabilityexamples