Saison 5 Episode 2 : Le Signal et le Prix

-- 1. FLOW / AIS / TRANSIT (sensor 1) -- IMF PortWatch (IMF + University of Oxford) — portwatch.imf.org Daily activity ~2065 ports + 28 chokepoints (including Malacca), AIS ~90,000 vessels, updated weekly. FREE: CSV/GeoJSON/API. Note: AIS coverage gap for Southeast Asia March-July 2024, backed up Oct. 2024. MarineTraffic / VesselFinder — real-time visualization (commercial). Kpler / Spire / Windward — enhanced AIS + fine vessel speed (PAID; only to provide the slow steaming signal). -- 2. CALLS / PORTS (sensor 2) SHANGHAI — SIPG, portshanghai.com.cn World's leading container port; Over 50 million TEUs in 2024 (first to cross the threshold); Total throughput ~580.5 million tons. World's leading connectivity (13 years), ~350 services, Over 700 ports. Yangshan IV Auto: -70% labor, +30% efficiency. Jan.-Nov. 2025: 50.56 million TEUs (+6.7%). NINGBO-ZHOUSHAN — nbport.com.cn World's leading tonnage (16th year); ~1.37 billion tons in 2024, threshold 1.4 billion tons in 2025. Containers: 39.3 million TEUs in 2024 (+11%). Shulanghu Terminal: First simultaneous unloading of two 400,000-ton containers. Rail-sea over 1.8 million TEU in 2024. SHENZHEN — szport.net / yict.com.cn ~33.4 million TEU in 2024 (+12%); total ~318 million tons. Yantian = US export gateway (over 1/4 of exports CN→USA), specializing in electronics. Jan.-Aug. 2025: 10.59 million TEU (+9.6%). Note Shenzhen Port Group (~17.4 million) vs. total port (~33.4 million). SINGAPORE — MPA, mpa.gov.sg (PREFERRED) 2024: 41.12 million TEU (+5.4%), first crossing 40 million; ~90% transshipment. 2025: 44.66 million TEU (+8.6%); 3.22 billion gross tons arrivals. 1st global bunkering: 54.92 Mt (2023) → 56.77 Mt (2025); alt. 1.95 Mt 2025. Effect of the Gemini alliance (Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd) on hubs. MALACCA (via PortWatch) ~210 ships/day; 25-30% of global maritime trade; ~40% of LNG; 15-17 M barrels/day. Lead time 7-14 days. ~150/210 call at Singapore; Singapore→EU ports transit time = ~4-6 weeks. -- 3. METABOLISM / ENERGY (sensor 3) -- Carbon Monitor — carbonmonitor.org (FREE) Daily CO2 since 01/2019; electricity 31 countries + industry 62 countries + mobility. Carbon Monitor-China — carbonmonitor.org.cn (FREE) Daily near-daily, 5 sectors, 31 provinces since 01/2019. Isolates Zhejiang (Ningbo) / Guangdong (Shenzhen). Note: decrease = may signal slowdown OR passive decarbonization → cross-reference with freight. CarbonMonitor-Power (FREE) — daily/hourly electricity, 37 countries, separates coal/gas/nuclear/renewables; latency 1 day-1 month. Global Coal Plant Tracker (Global Energy Monitor) globalenergymonitor.org — geolocated power plants (citation required); based on the "heat maps" map layer. -- 4. POLLUTION / NO2 (sensor 4) -- Copernicus Sentinel-5P / TROPOMI via Google Earth Engine developers.google.com/earth-engine (dataset COPERNICUS_S5P) Tropospheric NO2 since 06/2018, resolution 0.01°, NRTI + OFFL. FREE research/non-profit (Py/JS API). NO2 = combustion marker; method that revealed the 2020 activity collapse. Alternative access: dataspace.copernicus.eu. -- 5. SUPPLEMENTARY VISUAL NASA Black Marble / VIIRS — blackmarble.gsfc.nasa.gov (FREE) Nighttime brightness, activity proxy, port/industrial context layer. -- 6. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK Revealed preference applied to freight = widespread framework (present without citing creator). Front-loading = anticipation of tariff barriers, correlated with manufacturing PMIs (conditional). Slow steaming = voluntary slowdown in weak demand. -- 7. EUROPEAN CONTEXT Eurostat — ec.europa.eu/eurostat Maritime: mar_mg_aa_cwh, mar_mg_am_cvh. Land: road_go_ta_tott, rail_go_typepas, tran_hv_ms_frmod. Benchmarks: EU tonnage ~3.4 billion t 2024 (below peak 3.6 billion t 2019); record EU containers 100.9 million TEU; road ~1869 billion t-km (~2019 level); modal split 2024: maritime 67.0 / road 25.7 / rail 5.4 / inland waterway 1.7%. Upply / IRU — EU road toll indices: sluggish spot, fragile recovery.