Baker Tilly TPA Index: polska gospodarka na późnym etapie cyklu, szok naftowy zmienia reguły gry

The latest Baker Tilly TPA Index shows that the Polish economy remains in good shape, but is already in the late stages of the economic cycle. Additional risk factors include the oil shock and escalating tensions in the Middle East, which could change the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. Krzysztof Horodko, Managing Partner, and Tomasz Manowiec, Associate Partner at Baker Tilly TPA, discuss the key findings from the latest edition of the Baker Tilly TPA Index. In this episode, they discuss, among other things, the following: Topics: ✅ Economic conditions in Poland and GDP prospects for 2026 and 2027 ✅ Impact of the oil shock on inflation and the path of interest rates ✅ Importance of the conflict in the Middle East for energy, commodity, and food prices ✅ Activity on the M&A market and the participation of foreign investors ✅ Situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and high levels of valuation multiples ✅ Importance of revenue and EBITDA growth for enterprise value Full publication available here ➡️ https://www.bakertilly-tpa.pl/insight... Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and announcement of the Baker Tilly TPA Index 00:48 Economic conditions in Poland: strong indicators and growing Uncertainty 02:33 Mixed signals from the economy and the role of investments from the KPO 04:03 GDP forecasts, inflation, and interest rates 05:33 3M WIBOR and market expectations regarding interest rates 06:40 The conflict in the Middle East and energy prices 09:14 Raw materials, gas, oil, and fertilizers: the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz 12:35 Risks to the global economy and market reaction 13:26 The M&A market in Poland: 108 transactions and foreign investors 15:23 The most active sectors: technology, energy, industry, and health 16:19 The Polish stock market, high valuations, and the peak of the cycle 18:22 Building enterprise value: sales and profitability growth 21:40 Is long-term, above-average growth possible? 23:08 Growth Strategies: Innovation, New Markets, Acquisitions, and Price Competition 26:08 Summary and Invitation to the Next Edition =============================================== Do you have questions about our publication? Leave a comment – ​​we'll answer! ====================================================== 🔔 Subscribe to the channel to stay up to date with finance, taxes, law, and markets. 🔔 ============================================================= Want more about the state of the Polish economy and key trends? Follow us and subscribe to our newsletter! https://bakertilly.pl/subskrypcja/ ============================================ 🌟 Stay up to date by following our LinkedIn profiles:   / tpapoland     / bakertilly-tpa     / baker-tilly-legal-poland   ================================================ 🎧 Prefer a podcast? Listen to us: 🎧 Spotify: [https://open.spotify.com/show/2r7DN7j](https://open.spotify.com/show/2r7DN7j)... 🎧 Apple Podcasts: [https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast)... #TPAObserver #BakerTillyTPAIndex #economy