경제 교과서 틀렸다. 물가 때문에 금리 인상해도 주가 오른다 (류상철 전 한국은행 국장)

💡Summary U.S. Treasury bonds, which have traditionally served as safe haven assets with prices rising during crises, have been repeatedly experiencing price declines since the COVID-19 pandemic. As interest rates rise and bond prices fall under stressful conditions, analysts suggest that cracks are appearing in the role of Treasury bonds as the "North Star" of the global financial system, which used them as a benchmark to price other assets. An expert formerly with the Bank of Korea cites inflation, which has re-emerged for the first time in over 40 years since the oil shock, as the fundamental cause of this shift. Central banks determine interest rates based on two axes: growth and prices. However, as inflation has emerged as a key variable since the pandemic, the very way the bond market operates has changed. The traditional formula that interest rates fall and bond prices rise during an economic recession has broken down, and a phenomenon of synchronization is appearing, where stocks and bonds move in the same direction. Consequently, the 60% stock-to-40% bond diversification strategy, which has been the standard for over half a century, is losing its risk diversification function. U.S. government debt has expanded to the point where it accounts for 60% of the total debt of the G7, and the country is issuing government bonds primarily in the short term to lower interest burdens. Market volatility is increasing further as the role of stable buyers, such as foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve, diminishes while leveraged hedge funds establish themselves as major buyers. With structural factors like population aging, supply chain restructuring, and tariffs potentially prolonging inflationary pressure, can U.S. Treasury bonds maintain their role as a benchmark for global finance? 📌Key Topics Weakening Status of U.S. Treasury Bonds as Safe Assets Correlation Between Inflation and Interest Rate Determination Stock-Bond Synchronization and the Collapse of Portfolio Strategies Changes in the Structure of Government Bond Buyers and Market Volatility Expansion of U.S. Government Debt and Fiscal Risk [This is an AI-generated summary of the video] 👉Understanding Inquiries: [email protected] 👉Read "Understanding Text". https://contents.premium.naver.com/ba... 👉 Join Understanding Membership    / @understanding.