Precio no garantiza éxito: la cuenta que casi nadie hace en 2026 | Juan Elizalde

In this talk from the 2026 Livestock Congress, Juan Elizalde takes a look at the numbers and demonstrates, with data from May, why raising calves is not only unprofitable for breeders, but it also reduces their profit margin compared to keeping the cow. With an updated economic analysis based on calves at $4.40-$4.60 USD, steers at $3.37 USD, and corn at $263 USD per ton, Elizalde covers the entire landscape of the Argentine livestock business and debunks several established myths. What you'll find: • A snapshot of Argentine livestock investment: $20 billion USD per year, of which only $1.06 billion (5%) goes to pastures and forage crops. This is despite the fact that 92% of the national cattle herd's diet is pasture. Herein lies the structural problem. • Why are healthcare expenses (USD 440 million, 2% of investment) unsustainable if Argentina wants to expand its cattle herd? • The concrete calculation of breeding vs. raising cattle in 2026: USD 140 per cow equivalent in breeding versus USD 90-100 in pure raising. If you're going to invest resources anywhere, invest them in improving breeding practices. • The data point that few measure: each month of delayed calving costs USD 67 per weaned cow. In a herd with a 65% calving rate in the first month (which is excellent), the last third yields only 6% profit. • The four intensification models for cattle breeding in the Salado River basin: from pure natural pasture (67 kg of meat/ha, negative margin) to pasture + ryegrass promotion (166 kg of meat/ha, positive margin, paying rent). Profitability increases from -5% to +14%. • The heavy steer trap: why increasing slaughter weight from 430 to 510 kg is more expensive than it yields. The Argentine table vs. the Uruguayan/US model. • Four models of rearing and finishing on alfalfa compared, with stocking rates of 2.5 to 7.3 head/ha and margins of USD 97 to USD 1,000 per hectare. Here, intensification pays off, but profitability equals that of well-managed breeding because calves are expensive. • Why breeding heifers at 15 months is the best investment today: it removes stock from the field and replaces it with a cow that produces a calf worth USD 1,000. ⏱ CHAPTERS 00:00 The Unique Price Moment: Calf x4 in 4 Years 04:30 The Problem of Buying High: Purchase-Sale Ratio 08:40 2025 vs 2026 Margin by Production System 13:50 Argentine Livestock Investment and Where It's Spent 17:00 The Unstable Forage Base: Stubble, Roadsides, and Lowlands 22:50 Four Breeding Intensifications Compared 28:00 Price Doesn't Guarantee Success: Losing Breeding 35:20 Appearance Month: USD 67 per Cow for Each Month Delayed 46:00 Breeding vs. Rearing: Why Cows Beat Steers 55:00 Rearing + Finishing: Four Models on Alfalfa 01:05:00 The Trap of Heavy Steers and the Argentine Price Table 01:13:30 Conclusions: Data Kills Narrative 01:17:00 Questions: 60-day service, AI, and birth weight 👉 Want to bring all this to your farm? Apply to the Livestock Professionalization Program (7 weeks, 100% online, limited spots): campoganadero.com