Retiring in Australia: Will you have enough?

"One day... you're gonna die." That's how Fergie the dog kicks things off. Grim start, stick with us — it gets a lot more useful from there. 🐶☕🇦🇺 Billy (and his cavoodle co-host, Fergie) walk you through the FREE Australian Retirement Planner — built to answer the question every soon-to-be-retiree actually loses sleep over: "Will my money last?" 🔗 TRY THE PLANNER (free, runs in your browser, nothing sent to any server): https://au-retirement-planner-2026.ne... :( When Will I DIE? Try the free calculator. It will predict it to the Day!! https://when-will-i-die.netlify.app/ ☕ WANT THE FULL EXCEL SPREADSHEET VERSION, OR JUST WANT TO SAY THANKS? https://buymeacoffee.com/probabilly In this video, Billy and Fergie break down: ✅ Why a straight-line retirement calculator is quietly lying to you ✅ Sequence-of-returns risk — how the SAME average return can leave you broke or comfortable, depending purely on the order the good and bad years arrive ✅ What a Monte Carlo simulation actually is, and why "one projected number" is far less useful than a full range of outcomes (P10 to P90) ✅ How the Age Pension assets test, income test and deeming rates interact with your super — and why getting this wrong can cost you thousands ✅ How just 2 extra working years can make an "astonishing difference" to your retirement savings ✅ How to model downsizing, debt payoff, extra income, and taxes like Division 293/296 and excess contributions inside the planner itself WHY THIS TOOL EXISTS I built this for myself after years of running my own retirement spreadsheet — then used AI to sanity-check it, cleaned it up, and figured other Australians planning retirement (or grey nomad life, like me!) might find it useful too. It's fully updated with 2026-27 Age Pension rates, assets test thresholds, income test rules and superannuation contribution caps. WHAT'S INSIDE THE PLANNER 🐨 Three scenario projections (Conservative / Balanced / Growth) so you see a range of possible outcomes, not just one number 🐨 A full Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of randomised market scenarios — to stress-test your plan against real-world volatility, not fantasy-land smooth returns 🐨 Live Age Pension modelling using current assets test, income test and deeming rate rules 🐨 Downsizer contributions, debt payoff, extra income streams, and tax modelling (Division 293/296, excess contributions) 🐨 A companion Excel/spreadsheet version for those who want to get properly under the hood (grab it via the coffee link above ☕) WHO THIS IS FOR Anyone planning their own retirement, checking in on how their existing plan stacks up, or helping a parent (or kid!) figure out if their super and Age Pension entitlement will actually cover the retirement they're picturing — whether that's touring Australia in a caravan, more time with the grandkids, or just finally relaxing. ⚠️ IMPORTANT: This planner is an educational tool only and does not constitute financial advice. Billy and Fergie are very charming but not licensed financial advisers — please speak to an ASIC-authorised financial adviser before making retirement decisions. ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Background to the Australian Retirement Planner 00:48 What this planner is (and isn't) — a decision support tool, not a crystal ball 02:49 Billy, Fergie, and the question none of us can avoid 03:25 Why "calculator: straight line" isn't how markets actually behave 04:05 The Free Retirement Planner 05:18 How do you plan for a future you can't predict? 07:58 Sequence risk — retirees experience sequences, not averages 10:10 Let's explore the Planner — live walkthrough begins 12:51 Life Expectancy 13:38 The financial stress test: "if things go badly, will I survive?" 15:47 Just 2 extra working years = an astonishing difference 19:03 The averaging trap: +50%, then -40%... how did you end up with nothing? 20:07 From ONE guess to a full probability distribution (Monte Carlo in ~20 seconds) 22:02 Reading your results: what the P10–P90 gap is really telling you 24:19 Probability Distributions in Monte Carlo analysis 28:44 Your Next Steps 31:05 Bringing it together — life expectancy + "will my money last?" 🔗 LINKS Planner (web app): https://au-retirement-planner-2026.ne... Get the spreadsheet / support the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/probabilly 👍 If this helped you get a clearer picture of your retirement, smash like, subscribe, and drop a comment — Fergie reads every one (Billy proofreads them first). #AustralianRetirementPlanner #RetirementPlanning #AgePension #Superannuation #MonteCarloSimulation #FinancialIndependence #RetireEarlyAustralia #SuperannuationAustralia #GreyNomad #PersonalFinanceAustralia #RetirementCalculator #AgePensionAustralia