Bad Idea #47 "Geothermal energy is niche" with Terra Rogers

Geothermal energy isn't niche—it's everywhere. In this conversation, Mark Lynas speaks with Terra Rogers—program director for Superhot Rock Geothermal at Clean Air Task Force—about how next-generation geothermal technology could deliver 24/7 carbon-free baseload power anywhere on Earth. For a century, geothermal meant hunting for rare pockets where heat, water, and permeable rock aligned naturally—volcanic zones like Iceland, Japan, New Zealand. But it's hot everywhere. At 5 kilometers depth in the US West, temperatures hit 150-200°C. Go deeper—eventually to 10-15 kilometers—and you reach 400°C supercritical phase, where water acts simultaneously as liquid and gas, delivering 5-10 times more energy per well. Borrowing from the shale gas revolution, next-gen geothermal creates artificial reservoirs by fracturing hot rock and cycling water through it—two straws in a sponge. No natural water pockets needed. Just drill, fracture, inject, extract steam, generate power, repeat. The technology exists. Forge in Utah cut drilling time from 60 days to 15 days and reduced costs 50% in three years. Fervo just sold 500 megawatts to California. Japan targets four 100-megawatt supercritical projects. 🧠 Topics Discussed: 🌋 Conventional geothermal: 100+ years in Iceland/Japan/New Zealand, hunting natural water pockets 🔥 Superhot breakthrough: 400°C supercritical phase = 5-10x more energy, works anywhere 🛢️ Shale revolution parallel: fracture hard rock, create artificial reservoirs, cycle your own water ⚙️ Engineering gaps: high-temp instruments, thermal-resistant cement, casing expansion management 📉 Cost trajectory: Forge cut time 60→15 days, 50% cost reduction; targeting $20-40/MWh at scale ⚡ Scale potential: 500 MW (Fervo), gigawatt plants possible, high school campus footprint 🏭 Industrial heat cascading: Iceland model—power → pharmaceuticals → fish → melt streets 🌍 Geographic expansion: UK (Cornwall), Germany, France all viable with deeper drilling 🔬 Next-gen drilling: plasma/laser tech to penetrate hard rock, reaching 15-20 km eventually 💰 Investment gap: $1B invested, need institutional money for wells 1-5 (each $5-20M) 🛢️ Oil & gas pivot: trained workforce, rig assets critical for climate-relevant timeline 🗾 Japan commitment: 4x 100 MW supercritical projects, desperate for firm power 📊 Jobs & transition: existing oil/gas/power workforce ready to deploy 👨‍🏫 Guest Bio: Terra Rogers is program director for Superhot Rock Geothermal at Clean Air Task Force, where she advances policy, investment, and research to commercialize next-generation geothermal energy. Her work focuses on enabling firm, carbon-free baseload power by creating artificial geothermal reservoirs in superhot rock accessible anywhere on Earth. 📚 Recommended Reading: ● Clean Air Task Force geothermal resources ● FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) Utah data ● Fervo Energy commercial deployments ● Japan supercritical geothermal initiatives 💬 Quote Highlights: (01:08) "We are both blessed and cursed with 100+ years of operating data. The world has heard of geothermal and concluded it's not for them because they don't have it." — Terra Rogers (03:09) "It is really truly hot everywhere. It's now just a matter of can we access it with drilling technologies we have." — Terra Rogers (51:26) "The geothermal industry can do this without the oil and gas industry. It's just if we want to do it in a timeline that matters for climate, we need to do it with their assets." — Terra Rogers 🌐 About WePlanet: WePlanet is a global citizen and science movement challenging bad ideas and championing evidence-based solutions for climate, nature, and human progress. Learn more at weplanet.org 📥 Join the Conversation 💬 Email: [email protected] 📩 Subscribe: weplanet.org/podcast 👁️ Follow: @weplanetint #WePlanet #Science #RebootFood #WhatAWaste #RethinkNuclear #FundFutureFood