Markets Are Extended — Why I'm 50% Cash and Waiting for the Commodities Rally | 24 May 2026

Markets are stretched. South Korea's leveraged retail mania is at record margin debt, the Nasdaq has run six weeks straight, and the Goldman Sachs momentum-rally study says a 10-15% retrace from here is the historical median. I'm 50% cash and patient — here's exactly what I'm waiting for. In this week's video I cover the three things that matter most for Aussie ETF investors right now: 🇰🇷 The extended markets — South Korea, AI, Nasdaq South Korean margin debt at all-time highs (~36 trillion won, +143% since Jan 2025) KOSPI +200% over 12 months — retail buying with leverage, foreign capital exiting Goldman Sachs study of 11 historical 20%+ rallies since 1980 → median outcome is a 10-15% retrace before continuation The 3-4 March mini-crash (-20% in 48 hours) is the warning shot Realistic correction zones: IKO -10% to $247, -20% to $220 / SEMI back to $30 / NDQ hedged back to $52 / S&P hedged back to $61 🇦🇺 The Aussie market — still stuck ASX 200 going nowhere because the only two sectors holding it up are banks and miners OZXX (ex banks/resources) is in a proper -20% bear market — fresh lows again last week All eyes on OZF at the 2860 level — if banks break that line, the ATEC-style top playbook kicks in (15-30% downside on financials) Big global capital outflows post-Federal Budget weighing on the AUD and our resources sector Resources (MVR, QRE, OZR) need time to consolidate — looking for early-to-mid June 🛢️ Commodities lining up for mid-June Copper and zinc charts setting up first — could move in the next 1-2 weeks Precious metals (gold, silver, miners) charting up for mid-June trigger Oil (OOO) sitting tight in a downtrend wedge — Strait of Hormuz tension still unresolved Uranium needs more time — late-year set-up The takeaway: This is one of the best risk-adjusted set-ups I've seen all year — but it requires patience. Sitting on 50% cash, watching key trigger levels, not chasing extended names. ⏱️ Chapters 0:00 — Three themes for the week 1:00 — South Korea margin debt at record highs 3:30 — Goldman Sachs momentum-rally study 5:30 — Correction targets for IKO, SEMI, HNDQ, IHVV 8:00 — Where the money is starting to rotate (small caps, equal-weight) 10:00 — Market Health-o-Meter: ORANGE, US Risk: GREEN 12:00 — Aussie market stuck on banks + resources 14:00 — OZXX in a bear market — broader Aussie equities -20% 16:00 — OZF 2860 line: the ATEC-style topping setup 18:00 — Commodities setup: copper, zinc first to move 20:00 — Precious metals, gold miners, silver lining up 22:00 — Oil (OOO) and Strait of Hormuz 24:00 — Uranium — patient set-up 26:00 — Wrap & action plan for the next two weeks DISCLAIMER This information is general advice only and does not take into account your personal financial circumstances. It is for educational purposes only, and does not constitute personal financial advice. You should always do your own research and seek professional advice that is tailored to your specific needs and circumstances. The etfadviser is NOT a qualified tax accountant or tax professional. You can access JAS Weath t/a etfadviser Financial Services Guide (FSG) here:⁠ https://jaswealth.com.au/s/FSG-1-July....