Reshuffling of the World Order: What Role for the “Middle Powers”?

The Shifting Global Chessboard: Middle Powers Asserting Agency Amidst Polycentric Transition The panel highlighted a decisive reconfiguration of global power: a move from bipolar or unipolar structures toward a truly multipolar, polycentric system where “middle powers” are no longer peripheral actors but active shapers of regional and global stability. The core tension identified was the paradox of traditional great powers—still indispensable in crises yet increasingly unreliable—forcing middle states to rethink their strategic positioning and assert new forms of agency. Dino Patti Djalal, former Indonesian ambassador to the United States and Vice Foreign Minister of Indonesia, argued that today’s world order should be understood as an aggregation of regional orders. Regional blocs such as ASEAN demonstrate how middle powers can set the terms of engagement for major powers, thereby recalibrating global dynamics. Dubai Anulhoul, Emirati author and columnist, outlined a new Gulf “doctrine of self-management,” grounded in strategic confidence, regional dialogue, and de-escalation—prioritizing homegrown security arrangements over exclusive reliance on external guarantors. Cesar Cunha Campos, Director of FGV Europe, presented BRICS as a flexible, dialogue-based platform aimed at economic growth and inclusive governance rather than a rigid geopolitical alliance, despite varying strategic agendas among members. Galip Dalay, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, offered a dual-track strategy: while short-term realities may require doubling down on existing alliances—even imperfect ones—the long-term imperative is broad strategic diversification. Yoko Hirose, Professor at Keio University, reframed Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) as a global connectivity and public-goods initiative—an effort to foster transparency, rule of law, and trust worldwide, positioning Japan as a “quiet stabilizer” that blends economic security with technological innovation. A major fault line emerged over perceptions of the United States. While its crisis-management capabilities remain unmatched, Abulhoul and Dalay underscored a growing conviction among Gulf states and Turkey that the US can no longer be relied upon as a sole security provider. This sentiment is driving structural diversification, from defense procurement to diplomatic outreach. Within BRICS, Cunha Campos acknowledged that cohesion is challenged by diverging ambitions—China’s pursuit of global influence, Russia’s search for relevance, India’s multi-alignment—yet emphasized the bloc’s value as a non-confrontational forum. The panel also identified critical blind spots shaping the next world order. Djalal warned that Western analysis remains overly fixated on China, obscuring the collective transformational impact of middle powers across regions. Abulhoul highlighted the Gulf’s emergence as a genuine “convening power,” able to host Global North and South actors without historical baggage, marking a qualitative shift in diplomatic centrality. Cunha Campos noted Brazil’s unique credibility as a bridge between “poor and rich countries,” a form of influence often overlooked in traditional power metrics. Dalay’s description of middle-power strategy—“short-term bribe, long-term diversify”—captured the transactional realism governing many states’ relations with major powers. An unexpected insight concerned the growing opportunity for European defense industries, as middle powers increasingly diversify procurement to avoid entanglement in US–China–Russia rivalries, opening new strategic avenues for Europe. Strategic Takeaway: Middle powers are no longer passive recipients of global trends; they are recalibrating the architecture of global governance. Their strategies reflect a need to navigate great-power indispensability and unreliability simultaneously, driving diversified partnerships, regional consolidation, and new diplomatic coalitions. For established powers, this shift demands a fundamental reassessment of engagement strategies. The emerging global order will be shaped not by hierarchical dominance but by a polycentric, collaborative model in which middle powers play a pivotal role. Follow us on social media • 𝗧𝘄𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 -   / parispeaceforum   • 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗱𝗜𝗻 -   / parispeaceforum   • 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 -   / parispeaceforum   • 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 -   / parispeaceforum   • 𝗧𝗶𝗸𝗧𝗼𝗸 -   / parispeaceforum_