PESQUISA GENIAL/QUAEST: LULA ABRE 31 PONTOS NO NORDESTE E LIDERA O SUDESTE; FLÁVIO GANHA NO SUL

The regional stratification of the Genial/Quaest survey from July 2026 reveals a geographically unequal presidential race. Lula leads in three of the four segments presented by the institute—Northeast, Southeast, and the Central-West/North grouping—while Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead only in the South. The survey was conducted between July 10 and 13, with 2,004 face-to-face, in-home interviews. The overall margin of error is estimated at two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-07181/2026 and was officially made available by Quaest. However, the margins of error for the regional segments are higher than the national margin: three points in the Southeast, four in the Northeast, five in the Central-West/North, and six in the South. The percentages cannot be added together or treated as regions of equal weight. The national result depends on the share of each territory in the electorate and the weighting used by the institute. The political value of stratification lies in showing where each candidacy concentrates strength, faces resistance, or has room to grow. In the Northeast, Lula registers 55% of voting intentions, compared to 24% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The 31-point difference is the largest among all regional segments of the survey. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos each appear with 3%. Undecided voters represent 6%, while 7% declare a blank vote, null vote, or intention not to vote. The low percentage of undecided voters, compared to other regions, suggests a more consolidated regional electorate in the July snapshot. Lula appears with 35% in the Southeast, compared to 28% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema each register 3%, while Renan Santos has 2%. The most relevant data is that 14% remain undecided and 10% declare a blank vote, null vote, or intention not to vote. Combined, these groups represent almost a quarter of those interviewed in the region. Lula's seven-point lead is politically important because the Southeast region has the largest electorate in the country. However, the high proportion of undecided voters makes the regional scenario more susceptible to campaigns, debates, and economic assessments. The South is the only region where Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead: 37%, compared to Lula's 29%. Caiado, Renan Santos, and Zema each register 3%. There are also 11% undecided and 9% blank, null, or unintentional votes. In the Central-West/North region, Lula reaches 39%, Flávio Bolsonaro has 24%, and Ronaldo Caiado appears with 13%. Renan Santos registers 4% and Romeu Zema, 2%. Undecided voters represent 9%, while 6% declare blank, null, or unintentional votes. Lula's advantage over Flávio reaches 15 points. Caiado's result is one of the peculiarities of the stratification. His 13% in this grouping contrasts with the 3% registered in the Northeast, Southeast, and South. This performance suggests a stronger territorial presence, especially due to his political ties with the Midwest. The presidential race will not be decided solely by who wins the most regions, but by the size of the advantages, the electoral weight of each territory, and the ability of the campaigns to mobilize undecided voters. The July snapshot favors Lula, but also shows that the Southeast will be the main battleground and that the South will continue to be the territory most favorable to Flávio. #GenialQuaestResearch #Elections2026 #VotingIntention #Lula2026 #FlávioBolsonaro #ElectoralResearch #ElectoralAnalysis #ElectoralMap #BrazilianPolitics #ArquimedesDeCastro