WCCS 26 Keynote : Critical Transitions in Coupled Human-and-Natural Systems. Chris Bauch

Critical Transitions in Coupled Human-and-Natural Systems and their Early Warning Signals. Chris Bauch, University of Waterloo, Canada Talk given on April 21th, 2026 at the World Conference on Complex Systems, 6th edition UM6P Benguerir, Morocco Abstract Coupled human-and-natural systems (CHANS) are increasingly studied due to their relevance to health and sustainability, and their ability to exhibit novel dynamical regimes that are not observed when human and natural systems are in isolation from one another. This dynamical richness creates both challenges and opportunities for research. In this talk, I will present some dynamical systems models of CHANS and characterize their regimes; discuss novel behaviours that arise in the detection of early warning signals of tipping points in these systems; and show how hybridizing dynamical systems theory with deep learning algorithms can improve the detection of these early warning signals. Study systems include land use in forest-grassland ecosystem mosaics, mitigation in social-climate systems, and vaccine programs for COVID-19 and measles. This work is motivated by questions such as: How do we know which dynamical regimes are possible? How can the use of CHANS models change recommendations about public health or climate mitigation? How can we know when a tipping point is near, and what happens afterwards?