US equities: Risk building beneath the rally

US equities have delivered strong gains year-to-date, despite a challenging macro backdrop, but that momentum is beginning to look less secure. While fundamentals remain supportive, the near‑term setup is becoming more stretched.​ In this episode of Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey is joined by Alex Altmann, Global Head of Equity Tactical Strategies in our Markets division, to break down his shift to a short-term tactically cautious view.​ They discuss how the balance of risks has begun to shift, with elevated euphoria and crowded positioning — particularly in AI‑linked momentum trades — leaving markets more exposed if that positioning unwinds. At the same time, higher real yields are starting to weigh on valuations, making the forward return profile less compelling, despite resilient earnings and macro data. ​ They also examine equity supply, with a growing pipeline of IPOs and broader issuance adding complexity to the near‑term outlook. ​ Taken together, these dynamics point to a more fragile setup. Patrick and Alex explore how the market may evolve and what role a pullback could play in resetting the current environment. Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​ • The Global Volatility Pulse: Macro stumble, technical reset (https://live.barcap.com/go/publicatio...) ​ • Equity Market Review: Shaky momentum, nascent rotation (https://live.barcap.com/go/publicatio...) ​ • U.S. Equity-Linked Strategies: AI Capex Funding: Why Equity? Why Converts? (https://live.barcap.com/go/publicatio...) ​ Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:​ • The Fed's next move (https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/...) ​ • The cusp of a capex supercycle (https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/...) ​ • A bullish view on US equities (https://www.ib.barclays/our-insights/...) ​ Important Content Disclosures (https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/i...) ​ Important Non-Research Content Disclosures (https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/i...)