A novel approach to modeling and decision making on future earthquake risk | Dr. Gemma Cremen

A novel people-centered approach to modeling and decision making on future earthquake risk Talk provided by Dr. Gemma Cremen from the University College London on October 22nd, 2025 as part of the SZ4D International Webinar Series. For more information, visit www.sz4d.org Full Webinar Description: Numerous approaches to earthquake risk modeling and quantification have already been proposed in the literature and/or are well established in practice. However, most of these procedures are designed to focus on risk in the context of current static exposure and vulnerability, and are therefore limited in their ability to support decisions related to the future, as yet partially unbuilt, urban landscape. This talk outlines an end-to-end risk modeling framework that explicitly addresses this specific challenge. The framework is designed to consider the earthquake risks of tomorrow's urban environment, using a simulation-based approach to rigorously capture the uncertainties inherent in future projections of exposure as well as physical and social vulnerability. The framework also advances the state-of-practice in future disaster risk modeling by additionally: (1) providing a harmonized methodology for integrating physical and social impacts of disasters that facilitates flexible characterization of risk metrics beyond physical damage/asset losses; and (2) incorporating a participatory, people-centered approach to risk-informed decision making. It can be used to support decision making on policies related to future urban planning and design, accounting for various stakeholder perspectives on risk.