樓市月報 七月整體成交繼續跌! 樓市確認轉勢!一手二手成交再跌3成 新盤炒家大手客失蹤! 賴完睇波唔買樓再賴打風無客 海瑅灣II 首賣未能一Q清 大型屋苑成交連跌3個月 美國加息

樓市月報 七月整體成交繼續跌! 樓市確認轉勢!一手二手成交再跌3成 新盤炒家大手客失蹤! 賴完睇波唔買樓再賴打風無客 海瑅灣II 首賣未能一Q清 大型屋苑成交連跌3個月 美國加息 這段影片討論了2026年7月份香港樓市的最新走勢，主要觀點與分析如下： 成交量持續下跌：影片指出，7月份無論是一手新盤還是二手市場的成交量都顯著萎縮，延續了6月開始的降溫趨勢，預計7月整體成交量會比前一個月再跌三至四成 [09:50]。 大陸資金與炒家減少：過去支撐樓市的內地資金與大型炒家（西餅客、大手客）明顯減少，發展商推盤策略也從以往的大批開售轉為保守的「分批試水溫」 [00:50, 02:17]。 新盤銷情降溫：以元朗新盤及海堤灣II為例，近期新盤開售均出現未能在首輪「一Q清台」的情況，發展商定價也未敢像以往般進取，甚至透過原價或克制定價來測試市場反應 [05:15]。 加息與經濟環境風險：隨著HIBOR（香港銀行同業拆息）維持高位，以及美國年底可能重啟加息循環，市場資金成本增加，進一步削弱了市民買樓或投資的意欲 [13:07, 15:01]。 後市展望：講者認為先前樓市的反彈行情已經告一段落，隨著購買力消退、租金升幅追不上樓價以及外來資金斷纜，未來樓市與樓價很大機會轉向向下調整 [27:57]。 Continued Drop in Transaction Volumes: The video points out that transaction volumes for both primary (new) and secondary property markets shrank significantly in July, continuing the cooling trend that began in June. It is estimated that overall July transactions will drop by another 30% to 40% compared to the previous month [09:50]. Reduction of Mainland Capital and Speculators: Mainland Chinese capital and large-scale speculators, which previously supported the property market, have visibly decreased. Developers have also shifted their sales strategies from large-scale launches to a more conservative, "batch-by-batch" approach to test the waters [00:50, 02:17]. Cooling Primary Market Sales: Taking new developments in Yuen Long and La Mer II (海堤灣II) as examples, recent new launches failed to sell out completely ("one-shot clear") in their initial rounds. Developers have not dared to price units as aggressively as before, often relying on flat pricing or conservative rates to gauge market response [05:15]. Risks of Interest Rate Hikes and Economic Environment: With HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) remaining high and the possibility of the U.S. resuming its interest rate hike cycle toward the end of the year, borrowing costs are increasing, which further dampens public willingness to buy or invest in property [13:07, 15:01]. Market Outlook: The speaker believes that the previous market rebound has come to an end. As purchasing power fades, rental growth fails to keep pace with property prices, and external capital flows dry up, the property market and prices are very likely to shift downward [27:57].