"넌 빠져!" "나를 빼? 다 엎어?"..미국마저 '패싱'한 네타냐후의 도박 / SBS / AFTER 8NEWS / 권영인 파리 특파원

00:00 "Netanyahu is in a panic!" 02:58 Why is Israel missing out? 04:06 The Lebanon Safe Zone: Why Netanyahu Cannot Give It Up 05:23 Israel Becomes the Biggest Variable in Negotiations: What Will Happen? 1. "Netanyahu is in a panic!" This is Switzerland. Since we are in Switzerland, let's talk about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Local reports are currently emerging stating that "Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a panic" and "has been deeply shocked." It is somewhat puzzling that Netanyahu, who would not have seemed particularly surprised even though over 70,000 people lost their lives in Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip, is in a panic, but the reason is the United States and Iran. The two countries, which have agreed on a memorandum of understanding to end the war and are negotiating the details, met here in Switzerland last weekend. In their first meeting, both sides agreed to establish a conflict de-escalation body—or "de confliction cell" in English—to resolve the conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Iran has tightly packed several conditions for the nuclear disarmament negotiations desired by the United States. These include the lifting of economic sanctions, permission to export Iranian oil, and a permanent cessation of attacks on Iranian territory, among others. Another condition included is the cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. It is not just a temporary cessation, but a permanent one. This constitutes Article 1 of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran regarding the end of the war. Although it was placed in Article 1 as the most critical point, Israel attacked Lebanon again without any regard for it, even after President Trump signed it. As everyone knows, this was an attack on Hezbollah, resulting in dozens of casualties. Iran has raised this issue. Arguing that there is no point in negotiations when even Article 1 cannot be upheld, they postponed the talks scheduled for last week. The Trump administration, facing a barrage of criticism questioning the purpose of the war, wants to quickly secure at least the nuclear disarmament agreement and wrap things up as much as possible before the fall midterm elections. Consequently, last week, Vice President Vance even went so far as to warn the uncooperative Israel to "get a grip." [JD Vance / U.S. Vice President: The Israelis whom President Trump considers a problem need to wake up and realize the reality facing Israel.] While Trump is known for his foul mouth, it is highly unusual and awkward for the Vice President to tell Israel, "Hey! Wake up, man!"—an Israel that was charging forward shoulder-to-shoulder with Iran just two months ago. Nevertheless, Israel is steadfastly demonstrating its determination to continue its presence in Lebanon and to continue attacks if necessary. That is why, at the first meeting between the U.S. and Iran, a consensus was reached to resolve the Israel issue first, even before full-scale negotiations on the nuclear issue began. The reason for this conflict de-escalation is that the parties involved gather to discuss and prevent a clash between Israel and Lebanon. The members of this body include the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar (which played mediating roles), and Lebanon, the party directly involved. However, Israel is excluded from this group. 2. Why Was Israel Excluded? They have removed Israel, the actual belligerent, from this conflict de-escalation body. Why did they do that? Simply put, this amounts to labeling Israel as a "conflict-mongering state" and a "peace-hinting state." Israel claims that its attacks on Hezbollah are a matter of self-defense. They state, "We have also suffered damage from Hezbollah attacks." Indeed, soldiers are killed, and they are subjected to drone strikes. However, this is tantamount to designating Israel as the primary culprit violating the ceasefire between the two nations. You can view it this way: Imagine a military clash in Lebanon. It is similar to a conflict decontamination body, excluding Israel, summoning a representative from Lebanon to ask, "Hey, what happened?" and "What did Israel do?" before reaching a conclusion. Of course, Israel's side would be heard, but Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Lebanon, and even the United States are unlikely to readily listen to Israel. Returning to the beginning, this is why reports are emerging locally that "Netanyahu is in a panic" and "he has been deeply shocked." In short, this is how Israel has been labeled a "conflict-mongering state" and a "state that has been deeply shocked." 3. The Lebanon Safe Zone: Why Netanyahu Cannot Give It Up Netanyahu, who instigated Trump to go to war, is unlikely to sit idly by. While Trump is in a hurry ahead of the midterm elections, Netanyahu also faces a general election in November. Currently on trial for corruption charges, Netanyahu cannot guarantee his future if he loses the election. Furthermore, although war fatigue has accumulated significantly within Israel...