The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance | World Science Festival

Stuff happens. The weather forecast says it’s sunny, but you just got drenched. You got a flu shot—but you’re sick in bed with the flu. Your best friend from Boston met your other best friend from San Francisco. Coincidentally. What are the odds? Risk, probability, chance, coincidence—they play a significant role in the way we make decisions about health, education, relationships, and money. But where does this data come from and what does it really mean? How does the brain find patterns and where can these patterns take us? When should we ditch the data and go with our gut? Join us in a captivating discussion that will demystify the chancy side of life. This program is part of the Big Ideas Series, made possible with support from the John Templeton Foundation. Original Program Date: June 2, 2011 MODERATOR: Marcus du Sautoy PARTICIPANTS: Amir Aczel, Gerd Gigerenzer, Leonard Mlodinow, Josh Tenenbaum Josh Tenenbaum and an experiment in ESP. 00:00 Risk, Probability, and Chance. 02:54 Marcus du Sautoy's Introduction. 06:32 Participant Introductions. 07:27 Are we good or bad at interpreting numbers? 09:45 The Monty Hall problem. 16:00 The fight or flight math means we understand numbers? 21:50 The "numbers are important" experiment. 25:33 VerizonMath: Verizon doesn't know Dollars from Cents. 29:30 If you play a lottery and there is 1 winner in a 1000, what is your percent of winning? 35:30 How well are our brains tuned for evidential data. 39:33 What is the birthday problem? 45:15 The way probability's are phrased are as important as the numbers. 53:31 Do we have a conception of a million? 01:03:28 What is a prior? 01:09:05 Josh Tenenbaum ESP experiment results. 01:15:19 "Numbers are important" experiment results. 01:20:45 How do we get a statistical society? 01:25:25 Don't miss a video! Subscribe NOW: https://www.youtube.com/worldsciencef... ABOUT WORLD SCIENCE FESTIVAL: The World Science Festival (WSF) is a multimedia organization bringing the most transformative ideas in science to global audiences. Through long- and short-form videos spanning physics, cosmology, quantum mechanics, biology, neuroscience, consciousness, medicine, space exploration, the dilemma of free will, artificial intelligence, engineering, robotics, and beyond. WSF gathers world-renowned scientists, artists, and thinkers for dynamic discussions, debates, lectures, performances, films, and immersive live experiences. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in New York City, the World Science Festival is a production of the World Science Foundation, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Our mission is to cultivate a public informed by science, inspired by its wonder, convinced of its value, and prepared to engage with its implications for the future. With live events reaching millions worldwide and hundreds of millions of digital views, WSF continues to expand its global impact through festivals, educational initiatives like World Science U, and digital content that explores the near and far future of our world. FOLLOW WORLD SCIENCE FESTIVAL: Website: https://worldsciencefestival.com/ Instagram:   / worldscifest   TikTok:   / worldscifest   X(Twitter):   / worldscifest   Facebook:   / worldsciencefestival   LinkedIn:   / world-science-festival   The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance    / @worldsciencefestival