2023 Home Sales Forecast & The Property Owner "Prisoner's Dilemma"

Episode #112 Home sales have been falling fast since interest rates rose last year. After a spree of house shopping and record-low mortgage rates, homeowners sit comfortably in 2023. They’ve got affordable monthly payments, a home that is (probably) bigger or better than their last one, and expect a potential recession sometime soon. So why would today’s homeowners give up all that security to buy in a hazardous market? Mark Fleming from First American has been trying to uncover the answer. Mark serves as Chief Economist for First American, one of the United State’s leading title companies. Mark’s job is to predict and forecast the housing market, home sales, and buyer activity. And in 2023’s topsy-turvy economy, this is becoming a little more difficult. Mark has built a model to help predict home sales, looking at key factors like household formation, affordability, current mortgage rates, demographics, and more. And he’s got some interesting findings to share. The days of low interest rates and property upgrading may be over. Homeowners are now staying in their houses for twice as long, holding off on buying their next home until favorable conditions arise. But, this creates a “prisoner’s dilemma” for home sellers and buyers. With most of the United State’s potential property inventory sitting in the hands of those who refuse to sell, we’re answering, “What happens next?” in this episode. ~~~~ Join BiggerPockets for FREE 👇 https://www.biggerpockets.com/signup?... ~~~~ Listen to The “On The Market” Podcast Wherever You Listen to Podcasts: BiggerPockets: https://www.biggerpockets.com/podcast... Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2NlzZ9N... ~~~~ Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise: https://www.fundrise.com/bpmarket ~~~~ Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area: http://biggerpockets.com/agentmatch ~~~~ Find Investor-Friendly Lenders: http://biggerpockets.com/lendermatch ~~~~ First American and Mark’s Podcast: First American: https://www.firstam.com/ REconomy Podcast: https://reconomy.firstam.com/ ~~~~ Inventory Shortage Could Continue As Interest Rates Rise and Homeowners Feel “Locked-In”: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/lo... ~~~~ Connect with Dave and Our Panel of Guests: Dave Meyer: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/d... Henry Washington: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/h... James Dainard: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/j... Jamil Damji: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/j... Kathy Fettke: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/k... ~~~~ Follow Dave and Our Guests on Instagram: Dave: @thedatadeli or   / thedatadeli   Henry: @thehenrywashington or   / thehenrywashington   James: @jdainflips or   / jdainflips   Jamil: @jdamji or   / jdamji   Kathy: @kathyfettke or   / kathyfettke   BiggerPockets: @biggerpockets or   / biggerpockets   Show notes at: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on... 00:00 Intro 02:27 The Housing Market's "New Normal" 08:25 More Volatility On the Way 12:04 The "Prisoner" Dilemma 19:07 Were Homes TOO Affordable? 31:23 Home Sale Predictions 42:02 Connect with Mark!