Пять сценариев для России — и разные активы для каждого из них

My fund: Polyakov Investments Mutual Fund. https://funds.finam.ru/ipif/polyakov-... Telegram: https://t.me/Polyakov_Ant Boosty: boosty Access to IIS + early access to all videos: https://clck.ru/3PQqwc Private auto-following: https://antonpolyakov.ru/ RUTube: https://rutube.ru/channel/39235183/ Zen: https://dzen.ru/poly_invest VK: https://vkvideo.ru/@antonpolyakov_pol... 00:00 What are we going to talk about today? 01:56 Herman Gref 09:23 Elvira Nabiullina 17:18 Alexander Novak 18:53 What is the strategic impasse? 20:41 What could be done 30:24 What are the possible scenarios 41:18 What should an investor do? 46:03 I tried my best for you, like, subscribe, comment The Russian economy has already entered a crisis, and the main task for investors today is not maximizing returns, but preserving the purchasing power of capital. In this episode, I examine in detail the key discussion of the Bank of Russia Financial Congress, featuring Herman Gref, Elvira Nabiullina, and Alexander Novak. Their presentations provide insight into how different centers of economic power assess the situation and what decisions may be made next. Gref believes that the economy has already passed the point of normal cooling and is approaching stagnation. Investments are declining, enterprises are chronically underinvested, high real interest rates are stifling business development, and weak companies continue to withhold labor and financial resources. The Central Bank of Russia takes a different stance. It considers labor shortages, inefficient resource allocation, large-scale preferential lending, and the budget deficit to be the main constraints on growth. While the state supports demand and subsidizes certain industries, the key rate is forced to remain high. The government, for its part, is reducing available spending but is unable to quickly eliminate the budget deficit due to priority government obligations. The main conclusion of the discussion is that the economic bloc does not yet have a unified long-term strategy. All participants are proposing individual tactical solutions and are essentially waiting for external circumstances to change. In the video, I discuss alternative measures: a gradual reduction in the rate, a reduction in preferential loans, a reform of migration policy, a systemic weakening of the ruble, currency controls, and a change in the tax burden. The main part of the release is about possible scenarios for investors. If the Central Bank continues to hold or raise the rate, money market funds, deposits, and short-term bonds may retain preference. If inflation begins to catch up with the rate, investors will have to switch to foreign currency instruments, floaters, and individual stocks. With a sharp decline in the rate and accelerating inflation, businesses capable of passing on rising costs to prices can provide the primary protection. With further tax increases, medium-duration bonds may become more attractive. The worst-case scenario is the transition to a mobilization and planned economy, in which the protection of hard currency capital becomes paramount. I also explain why freezing deposits is not a baseline scenario and why it is easier for the state to devalue ruble savings through inflation or to increase taxes. It is currently impossible to choose one asset and safely hold it for many years. The portfolio will have to be regularly adjusted in response to decisions by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, changes in the ruble exchange rate, inflation, and fiscal policy.