Commercial Real Estate and the Cycles of History with Fourth Turning author Neil Howe

How will demographics affect commercial real estate investing? How will changes in generational characteristics affect opportunities in US property markets? Neil Howe is an author of The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here. An expert in generational demographics who is credited as one of the coiners of the term “millennial”, Howe discusses the cycles of history and their implications for cross-border investors in this wide-ranging conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. LINKS To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/ Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ Watch Neil Howe’s POV    • What the Fourth Turning Means for Property...   Recent Neil Howe books include: The Fourth Turning https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+fourth... The Fourth Turning Is Here https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning... The thinking behind Howe’s theories on the cycles of history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss... Howe is the managing director of demography at Hedgeye Risk Management: https://app.hedgeye.com/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 – How demographics is one of the most powerful factors for investors. 00:54 – Who is Neil Howe? 01:25 – Why is Neil Howe thinking about Investing and future casting? 02:35 – Can the meaning of being 60 change over time? 02:57 – What are the origins of generational demography? 04:02 – Did we overestimate long-term care this decade? 05:05 – Will home-oriented care redefine the future of healthcare? 06:28 – Could Gen X be America’s next leadership generation? 07:55 – Do crises reform the cycles of American history? 08:20 – Are infrastructure-related investments shaped by dark periods? 09:06 – How did the Great Depression and WWII shape generations? 14:25 – Are we entering a new era of anti-globalization? 16:37 – Are we entering the Fourth Turning now? 17:12 – Are nations hoarding resources to prepare for crisis? 18:32 – What are the hallmarks of the late Fourth Turning? 21:55 – How can real estate investors respond to rising inflation? 22:47 – Can inflation be controlled in a de-globalizing world? 23:07 – Why can’t we effectively tackle inflation politically? 24:53 – Is winning the US election now more important than governance? 25:50 – Are voters settling for “not the other guy”? 26:10 – What steps lead to renewed community today? 27:07 – Can understanding history guide today's investments? 29:15 – Why does Southern migration keep accelerating? 32:09 – Are rising risks changing Sun Belt investments? 35:45 – Can old lake cities thrive again? 36:30 – Is the lack of public education a deal-breaker for families? 39:23 – Are pension costs the hidden urban challenge? 40:46 – What’s driving rural decline but urban stability? 44:54 – How does age influence where people choose to live? 50:41 – Are we building the right types of housing for today?