4 Mistakes Every Great Power Makes Before War — US vs China

The Thucydides Trap explains why every great power in history — Rome, Britain, the Soviet Union — has made the same fatal miscalculation about a rising rival. In this analysis, Professor Jiang breaks down the four systematic errors established powers repeat, and what game theory suggests about where the US–China rivalry is heading. �’ Get the ebook The Next Global Shift: How to Stay Ahead of Economic Collapse and War — link in the pinned comment. Drawing on Graham Allison's study of the last 500 years of great-power transitions, this video argues that the question isn't whether dominant powers misjudge rising challengers — it's why they keep doing it. Professor Jiang walks through each error in turn: confusing capability with intent, underestimating how outside pressure unifies a population, fighting the last war instead of the current one, and misreading the timeframe a rising power is willing to play. From there, the analysis applies the framework to the most consequential rivalry of our era. Why did decades of economic integration fail to "Westernize" China? Why did trade wars and semiconductor restrictions accelerate the very diversification they were meant to prevent? How does China's A2AD military doctrine — cheap missiles, hypersonics, drone swarms — target the weaknesses of carrier-based American power? And what does a 2049 strategic horizon mean against a four-year election cycle? The conclusion turns to the commitment problem at the heart of game theory: how two rational actors, neither wanting war, can be pushed toward it by structure and fear alone — this time with nuclear weapons in play. If you want to understand the world through structure, incentives, and game theory rather than headlines, subscribe and stay with the channel. Watch next: our deep dive on the South China Sea, the chokepoints, and how a conflict there could escalate. ▶ Subscribe for more geopolitical and game-theory analysis every week. — About this video: This video explores the Thucydides Trap, the US–China rivalry, great power competition, and game theory in international relations. Professor Jiang analyzes Graham Allison's rising-power framework, A2AD military doctrine, de-dollarization-era power shifts, and the structural forces driving 21st-century geopolitical transition. Tags Thucydides Trap, US China rivalry, great power competition, game theory geopolitics, why great powers miscalculate rising powers, rising power vs established power, Graham Allison, will US and China go to war, US China conflict explained, China military strategy, A2AD anti access area denial, Made in China 2049, geopolitical analysis, Professor Jiang, multipolar world order, US China trade war, South China Sea conflict, China rise explained, history of great power wars, Peloponnesian War lesson, geopolitics 2026, international relations theory, capability vs intent, semiconductor war China, future of US China relations Hashtags #ThucydidesTrap #USChina #GameTheory #Geopolitics #GreatPowerCompetition #ChinaRise #InternationalRelations #ProfessorJiang #WorldOrder #GeopoliticalAnalysis