Escalation (again) | Robert Pape

The past week has shattered whatever faith remained in that Memorandum of Understanding. The United States and Iran have once again exchanged strikes, with the U.S. military saying it hit 90 military targets, though Tehran claims many of those sites were civilian. The Iranian military, meanwhile, says it has retaliated by targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. What’s now likely to happen? Has the renewed fighting vindicated Professor Robert Pape’s escalation trap? On Ukraine, Professor Pape contends that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s campaign has become a strategic failure and that Ukraine is gaining the upper hand, including in Crimea. We put to Professor Pape the counterarguments advanced by Professors John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs, both of whom argue that Russia retains the strategic advantage and is likely to prevail in a prolonged ground war of attrition. Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of the Substack The Escalation Trap. His forthcoming book is Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism. Join Tom's Exclusive Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/cff5e11f69a3/switz... Read Tom's Substack: https://substack.com/@tomswitzer Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and Sky News, where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.