What Is Probability? Difficulties Understanding Probability

Professor David Wallace discusses the nature of probability and some of the philosophical puzzles that arise regarding how to understand and make sense of probability. He begins by distinguishing between subjective probabilities (which are about our beliefs) and objective probabilities (which are about the world itself). He then goes on to discuss various interpretations of probability and some of the difficulties that arise for each. This comes from a talk given in a series on the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics back in 2015 at Oxford. 00:00 Concepts of Probability 01:04 Subjective Probability 02:14 More-Objective Probabilities 03:49 Very Objective Probabilities 05:52 Two Questions about Objective Probability 08:40 Frequentism 13:52 Probability from Symmetry 16:59 Probability as Primitive 18:10 The "Why" Question 20:10 The Principal Principle 24:43 A Dearth of Solutions to the Why Question #philosophy #probability #epistemology #philosophyofscience #historyofphilosophy