A Thirsty Amazon: Drought, Disturbance, and the Limits of Forest Resilience

Dr. Paulo Brando - Yale University This talk explores how multiple interacting drivers of change are transforming ecological processes across the Amazon and potentially pushing its forests beyond their capacity to recover and maintain fundamental structural and functional characteristics — raising the critical question of whether a tipping point can still be avoided. Drawing on recent findings, the talk examines the cumulative toll of fires, fragmentation, and climate change on forest resilience, and presents new evidence on the thresholds beyond which recovery becomes uncertain or impossible. It further discusses advances in modeling approaches that improve our ability to anticipate future forest trajectories under continued pressure. The talk concludes by highlighting conservation opportunities that may yet offer pathways to preserving the Amazon's ecological integrity in an era of accelerating change.